2015 Gold Price Forecasts All "Flat" or "Falling"
London (Jan 25) 2015 GOLD FORECASTS from bank and broker analysts all see the annual average price flat or falling this year – except for the best 2014 forecaster, who predicts a very small rise.
Rising at a compound annual rate of 18% against the US Dollar between 2002 and 2012, the average daily gold price fell 15% in 2013 and a further 10% last year.
Winner of global trade body the London Bullion Market Association's 2014 gold forecast, Frederic Panizzutti – head of Swiss refining and finance group MKS's DMCC operations in Dubai – now believes average annual gold prices will rise $25 per ounce in 2015, a 2% gain.
Matthew Turner at Australian bank Macquarie's London office predicts a 2015 average of $1255 per ounce, down some $12 per ounce from the 2014 outcome and "little changed" from his previous forecast, as Western investor demand remains weak despite "lower expectations of long-term US interest rates."
"Looking into 2015," says David Jollie at Japanese trading house Mitsui's London office, "we are [also] relatively neutral overall on the outlook for the precious metals compared to the start of the year", with expectations of US interest rate hikes balancing QE from the European Central Bank.
Volatility in the currency markets, however, means "the risk is skewed more favourably to the upside than the market consensus would suggest," Jollie goes on. So whilst forecasting a drop in average Dollar prices to $1215 per ounce, "we would expect to see a bullish price performance across the precious metals complex in most [other] major currencies," he adds.
Also citing US Dollar strength and US rate rises, analysts at Dutch bank ABN Amro in contrast forecast the gold price will average just $1100 in 2015 – down 13% on last year – further pointing to improving "investor sentiment" in global stock markets, which "should reduce safe haven demand for gold."
Robin Bhar, precious metals analyst at French bank and London bullion market maker Societe Generale, is moire bearish still, seeing gold averaging just $1025 per ounce in 2015 – despite a widening deficit between demand and new supply – with a further drop to average $975 next year.
"Persistent talks about interest rate hikes and a strong US Dollar will prevent gold from significantly rallying in the first half," Bloomberg quotes Panizzutti at MKS.
But with central banks as a whole "increasingly on the buying side", he sees a "likely stock market correction" in the second-half of 2015 then boosting prices.