Big Drop In Stock Market Coming Monday?
It looks as though the US stock market could plunge Monday. We have Saturn Semi-Sq. Pluto while Saturn is in Scorpio and while Jupiter is trine Uranus. On the cycle front we have a Gann cycle low due Monday while we also have a Bradley turn date. The Armstrong Pi Cycle suggests a panic week for the Dow Industrials (which by my reckoning should occur on Monday).
How far down? Ideally, I should think a minimum of 22 points on the SPX, but I’m thinking it may be larger than that…more to a median 27-32 points down on the SPX. Then again we could go below last week’s low and tag the 2069/70 area and go down 39-40 points. The e-wave structure is a bit ambiguous (to me) as to whether we have formed an inverted bearish flat or not (more evident on the Industrials than the SPX).
The Gann cycle shadows are suggesting a mid-session low Monday. If we hit a new low on this move (below 2072), there is the possibility we may form a new neckline on the giant Head and Shoulders Pattern distribution top and no new highs would then be anticipated as we rally into the late June/early July expected top (as I’ve shown on the charts below).
Jupiter trine Uranus (June 22) has an orb of +/- 8 trading days for projecting an important top (and has often times predicted exact bottoms such as Monday’s expected drop). June 29-July 1 has Venus conj. Jupiter while trine to Uranus on a full moon, so this date cluster is likely to be a more important top than last Thursday (it is also a 3 week cycle top).
The recent sideways cluster in the SPX is the tightest such range in 65 years of data. We have all the signs of an important top at hand, but the market refuses to break down in earnest. That is likely going to happen (IMHO) in the early July to early August time frame.
The charts above are only possible projections and are not a trading recommendations. As events unfold, the view becomes clearer. We trade the market, not the forecast. We are currently short as of Friday June 19, 2015.
Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info
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