More Optimism Following Fed's Rate Decision Release - But Will It Last?

July 30, 2015

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish

Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish

Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.5-0.7% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to the Fed's Rate Decision announcement. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along the level of 2,100. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,120, and the next resistance level is at 2,130-2,135, marked by late May all-time high of 2,134.72. On the other hand, level of support remains at 2,090-2,100. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, however, we still can see negative technical divergences:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.1-0.2%. The main European stock market indexes have gained 0.4-0.9% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims, GDP - Advance number at 8:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) trades within an intraday uptrend. The nearest important resistance level is at around 2,100-2,110, among others. On the other hand, support level is at 2,090, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it retraces its yesterday's after-hours move down. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,580-4,600, and support level remains at 4,540-4,550, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market extended its short-term uptrend yesterday. There have been no confirmed medium-term negative signals so far. However, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (2,098.27, S&P 500 index), as we expect a medium-term downward correction or an uptrend reversal. Stop-loss is at 2,140, and potential profit target is at 1,980. You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.


Courtesy of

Paul Rejczak is a stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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