Positive Expectations Following Ukraine Cease-Fire Deal

February 12, 2015

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral

Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral

Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.4% on Wednesday, as investors remained uncertain following recent move up. Our yesterday's neutral intraday outlook has proved accurate. The S&P 500 index continues to fluctuate within its three-month long consolidation. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,080-2,100, marked by the December 29th all-time high of 2,093.55, among others. On the other hand, support level remains at 2,040-2,050, marked by recent local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.5-0.6%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.4-1.7% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims, Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m., Business Inventories at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is in an intraday uptrend, as it reaches resistance level at around 2,075-2,080. On the other hand, level of support is at 2,050-2,060:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) continues its short-term uptrend, as it breaks above the level of 4,300.  It remains relatively stronger than the broad stock market. The nearest important level of support is at 4,280-4,300, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Concluding, the broad stock market remains close to important medium-term resistance level, marked by last year's December all-time high. We still prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak

Stock Trading Strategist

Stock Trading Alerts


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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Paul Rejczak is a stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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