Silver Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2013

August 4, 2013

Silver closed the month at 19.790 unable to maintain the $20 price level. This month has been a battle between weak precious metals and craziness in the industrial metals markets with Chinese data lackluster and US data spotty we saws ups and downs all month but in the end silver ended trading in a very tight range between 20.572 and 18.675 less than a $2 variation, but remaining close to the 19.7 range most days. The US Fed decision to hold rates and policy kept precious metals jumping all month as everything was evaluated based on the Fed decision.

Highest: 20.572

Lowest: 18.675

Difference: 1.897

Average: 19.709

Change %: 1.20

Chinese PMI data was disappointing along with most data from China over the month which weighed on industrial metals. China’s administration is unwilling to tolerate excessive credit growth, particularly in the shadow banking sector. The authorities will likely continue their efforts to limit lending expansion in the coming months in pursuit of reaching a more structurally balanced financial environment and bringing the economy to a sustainable growth trajectory. Therefore, we will likely see a slowdown in non-public investment growth, causing China’s economic expansion to decelerate. Meanwhile however, China’s administration has the means to provide support to the economy if needed. Traders can expect the nation’s output to advance by 7⅓% in 2013 and 2014, compared with 7¾% previously. China’s second quarter real GDP increased by 7.5% y/y following a 7.7% gain in the January-March period; while growth in the industrial sector slowed slightly to 7.6%, the services sector maintained its robust momentum of 8.3% indicating that the economic contribution of household spending continues to increase.


Courtesy of

Barry Norman has over 30 years of financial and market knowledge and experience. He holds an MBA in Finance and Economics from UCLA and an undergraduate degree in Economics from University of Maryland. Barry taught commodities trading as a hobby, at the Learning Center in California for many years and established the first ‘Circle of Traders” group. All of this when charting was done by hand and you had to search manually to find weather and crop information through connections prior to computers. Mr. Norman is currently a FX Empire Analyst -

Fed has done all it can to fix US economy's non-structural issues, now it must hike rates