Silver Short-Term Update
A short update on the silver situation is shown in the daily price chart below. After a short ride along the upper portion of our Bollinger Band setup, silver has come off it to approach its 20-day moving average. Trends tend to follow the channel formed by the upper or lower bands and the middle moving average. However, when there is price volatility during times of change between long-term bull and bear markets, trading decisions need to be more carefully considered.
Note also the divergence between silver price peaks and their corresponding Relative Strength Index values. When silver makes new intermediate highs while the RSI only makes a lower high, then that suggests the move has ended. Whether silver will revisit its lows of the 26th August remains to be seen, but for this current trend in silver to remain bullish, we prefer to see silver remain above its 20-day moving average.
From an Elliott-Wave point of view, it is difficult to see a text book impulse wave coming out of the 26th August low, which would make us confident of the new silver bull finally arriving. However, there is one of a weaker nature. And a close below $15.40 on the assumption that the 18th September high was a wave 2 high would invalidate such an impulse wave reading.
Further analysis of silver can be had by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain subscription details for the Silver Analyst newsletter. Comments and questions are also invited via email to email@example.com.