Technical Stock Market Report

April 30, 2016

The good news is:  In spite of a rough week for the market indices, the breadth indicators held up pretty well.

The Negatives:  There are no serious negatives.

Considering how close some of the indices are to their all-time highs, the number of issues hitting new highs should be higher.

The positivesWhile new highs have been disappointing, new lows have disappeared and nothing really bad will happen without a significant increase in new lows.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.

OTC HL Ratio held up better than the index last week.

The next chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated from NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also held up better than the index and finished the week unchanged at a sensational 92%.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green.

This chart looks pretty good, especially because OTC NH rose last week while the index was falling.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it covers the past year.

OTC NH does not look as impressive here.

In the chart below the blue line shows the average of the OTC in May over all years since 1963 while the black line shows the average during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period.

Since 1928 the SPX has been up 57% of the time in May with an average loss of -0.2%.  During the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 68% of the time with an average loss of -1.5% (helped considerably by losses of 23.3% and 24.0% in 1932 and 1940 respectively).  The best May for the SPX was 1933 (+15.9%) the worst 1940 (-24.0%).  The SPX has not had a double digit % move, either way, in May since 1940.

The chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the daily average performance over all years for the SPX in May in red and the performance during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle in black.

Since 1979 the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 65% of the time in May with an average gain of 1.3%.  During the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 56% of the time with an average loss of -0.2%.  The best May ever for the R2K, 1997 (+11.0%), the worst 2010 (-7.7%)

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the R2K in May in magenta and the performance during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle in black.

Since 1885 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 51% of the time in May with an average loss of -0.1%.  During the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle the DJIA has been up 41% of the time in May with an average loss of -1.5%.  The best May for the DJIA 1898 (+14.7%), the worst 1940 (-21.7%)

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the DJIA in May in grey and the performance during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle in black.

Conclusion

Strength in the breadth indicators suggests the rally that began in mid-February is not over.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday May 6 than they were on Friday April 29.

Last weeks positive forecast was a miss.

Disclaimer: Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but I cannot attest to their accuracy.  Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com).  Historical data is from Barron’s and ISI price books.  The views expressed dare provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Mike Burk began developing equity trading systems in the early 1980's.  Through the 1990's he marketed an equity trading system called MIRAT based on breadth indicators, but, primarily new lows.  In the early days of this century he developed the seasonal trading strategies currently used by Alpha Investment Management of Cincinnati.  Mr. Burk has been writing equity market newsletters since the early 1990's.  During the past 10 years the letter observes both breadth and seasonal strategies.
 
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