Technical Stock Market Report

August 1, 2015

The good news is:  New lows declined significantly last week.

The negatives:  After hitting extreme levels on Monday, new lows declined sharply the rest of the week.  This is a critical point.  If new lows continue to decline, the recent hiccup in prices will be over.  Seasonally the first week of August, during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle, has not been pleasant.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL), in blue.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).

NY NL moved sharply upward last week.  It will take more than 195 NYSE new lows to turn the indicator downward.  Last Friday their were only 72.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NL, in orange, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.

OTC NL also turned upward last week.  It will require more than 125 NASDAQ new lows to turn OTC NL downward.  On Friday their were 83.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.

NY HL Ratio moved upward finishing the week at 46%.  If it continues upward the pattern of lower highs and lower lows will be broken.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC, in blue, and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.

OTC HL Ratio rose to 42%.  OTC HL Ratio has further to rise before its pattern of lower highs and lower lows has been broken.

Advance – Decline Lines (ADL) are running totals of declining issues subtracted from advancing issues.  We look for changes in character of this indicator.

The chart below covers the past year showing the SPX in red and an ADL calculated from NYSE issues in blue.

You can see how this indicator peaked out near the end of April and has been trending downward since then.  The bull market will not resume until the trend of this indicator changes.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC ADL, in green, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

In general OTC ADL has a more negative bias than NY ADL.  It is easy to see how the bias changed from modestly positive to negative around late April.

The positives

New lows declined significantly last week, but levels are still uncomfortably high.  Next week will be critical.  We had a bounce from oversold levels last week.  If new lows continue to decline regardless of what prices do the market should be ok.

Money supply (M2)

The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms.

M2 growth has been holding at its trend.

Since 1928 the SPX has been up 60% of the time in August with an average gain of 0.7%.  During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 57% of the time with an average gain of 0.5%.  The best ever August for the SPX was 1932 (+37.5%) the worst 1998 (-14.6%).

The chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the daily performance over all years for the SPX in August in red and the performance during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle in black.

Since 1979 the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 58% of the time in August with an average gain of 0.4%.  During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 67% of the time with an average gain of 0.7%.  The best ever August for the R2K, 1984 (+11.5%), the worst 1998 (-19.5%)

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the R2K in August in magenta and the performance during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle in black.

Since 1885 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 65% of the time in August with an average gain of 1.3%.  During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the DJIA has been up 72% of the time with an average gain of 1.2%.  The best August ever for the DJIA 1932 (+34.8%), the worst 1998 (-15.1%)

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the DJIA in August in Magenta and the performance during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle in green.

Conclusion

Last week’s rally brought a nice decline in the number of new lows.

Although there was a big decline in the number of new lows, the levels remain uncomfortably high --- Seasonally next week has been weak.

I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday August 7 than they were on Friday July 31.

Last week’s negative forecast was a miss.

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Disclaimer:  Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but I cannot attest to their accuracy.  Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com).  Historical data is from Barron’s and ISI price books.  The views expressed dare provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

Mike Burk began developing equity trading systems in the early 1980's.  Through the 1990's he marketed an equity trading system called MIRAT based on breadth indicators, but, primarily new lows.  In the early days of this century he developed the seasonal trading strategies currently used by Alpha Investment Management of Cincinnati.  Mr. Burk has been writing equity market newsletters since the early 1990's.  During the past 10 years the letter observes both breadth and seasonal strategies.
 
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