US Dollar Net Speculator Positions Pushed Up Last Week To +$34.15 Billion

June 7, 2015

Net speculator positions pushed up last week to +$34.15 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their overall net bullish positions higher in the US dollar last week for a second straight week after registering declines in the previous eight weeks.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $34.15 billion as of Tuesday June 2nd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$4.21 billion from the $29.94 billion total long position that was registered on May 26th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data brings the US dollar speculative level to the highest level since April 28th when net positions equaled $34.75 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.

Notable Changes:

  • The euro bets rose by over +6,000 contracts last week to gain for the past five out of six weeks
  • British pound sterling bets dipped very slightly last week to fall for a 2nd week and remain bearish at just over -25,000 contracts
  • Japanese yen bets fell sharply for a second week and now net bearish bets are back over the -85,000 threshold
  • Swiss franc bets were virtually unchanged (+29 contracts on the week) and continue to be in a bullish position of over +8,000 contracts
  • Canadian dollar bets fell last week by -8,358 contracts after rising higher for the previous six straight weeks. CAD bets have now fallen back into a small bearish position
  • Australian dollar bets dropped for a second week and declined back into a bearish overall position (-13,256 contracts)
  • New Zealand dollar positions decreased for a fifth week and NZD positions dropped further into bearish territory (-10,539 contracts)
  • Mexican Peso bets declined for a 3rd week last week and bearish net positions expanded further into bearish territory by over -45,000 contracts

This latest COT data is through Tuesday June 2nd and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

456919

50734

248500

356986

116294

240692

-17533

-197766

16879

05/05/2015

449254

50116

240243

343981

116070

227911

-12781

-190127

7639

05/12/2015

439122

43333

222309

345101

127933

217168

-10743

-178976

11151

05/19/2015

428580

38758

207097

338273

129839

208434

-8734

-168339

10637

05/26/2015

431927

44221

215961

336026

127583

208443

9

-171740

-3401

06/02/2015

428403

49471

214983

326452

119316

207136

-1307

-165512

6228


British Pound Sterling

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

171698

33239

67367

118250

73492

44758

-2739

-34128

-4847

05/05/2015

173468

34304

59062

117555

87212

30343

-14415

-24758

9370

05/12/2015

183586

37511

68280

124508

85521

38987

8644

-30769

-6011

05/19/2015

182607

41132

64494

117486

94098

23388

-15599

-23362

7407

05/26/2015

176797

34696

60235

117828

90963

26865

3477

-25539

-2177

06/02/2015

175291

32769

58427

117608

89094

28514

1649

-25658

-119


Japanese Yen

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

188079

48721

54214

118521

85966

32555

-17483

-5493

8955

05/05/2015

198886

41852

73035

139448

72449

66999

34444

-31183

-25690

05/12/2015

193296

37848

61441

137626

78612

59014

-7985

-23593

7590

05/19/2015

231658

63398

85403

153519

82936

70583

11569

-22005

1588

05/26/2015

251744

50210

112434

183190

65232

117958

47375

-62224

-40219

06/02/2015

260104

46681

132374

193122

52276

140846

22888

-85693

-23469


Swiss Franc

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

31585

11144

9809

13114

7268

5846

-1185

1335

1000

05/05/2015

34449

14174

8843

12091

11680

411

-5435

5331

3996

05/12/2015

33465

14778

4228

8914

16319

-7405

-7816

10550

5219

05/19/2015

31796

12114

2709

8904

17299

-8395

-990

9405

-1145

05/26/2015

30432

11202

2872

9699

15980

-6281

2114

8330

-1075

06/02/2015

32449

12514

4155

10247

15120

-4873

1408

8359

29


Canadian Dollar

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

128938

33858

54767

64232

39337

24895

-8701

-20909

6142

05/05/2015

122108

30028

40108

63415

49852

13563

-11332

-10080

10829

05/12/2015

123908

29133

33115

62731

62038

693

-12870

-3982

6098

05/19/2015

117811

25184

20836

64147

65543

-1396

-2089

4348

8330

05/26/2015

121908

30695

23362

63657

64022

-365

1031

7333

2985

06/02/2015

123127

30095

31120

66197

53863

12334

12699

-1025

-8358


Australian Dollar

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

140298

53753

81158

67196

22618

44578

-14667

-27405

7258

05/05/2015

137001

59033

58407

57213

44377

12836

-31742

626

28031

05/12/2015

136249

59435

54948

58529

48204

10325

-2511

4487

3861

05/19/2015

142589

65130

57807

57688

53630

4058

-6267

7323

2836

05/26/2015

144495

65245

58823

62234

50336

11898

7840

6422

-901

06/02/2015

156474

63386

76642

76618

43107

33511

21613

-13256

-19678




New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

28071

18281

8101

5134

15431

-10297

-2588

10180

1692

05/05/2015

28379

19585

10521

4813

13039

-8226

2071

9064

-1116

05/12/2015

25525

14268

12498

7678

8233

-555

7671

1770

-7294

05/19/2015

26331

11192

13423

11720

8044

3676

4231

-2231

-4001

05/26/2015

28514

10426

15513

14925

7265

7660

3984

-5087

-2856

06/02/2015

33005

9432

19971

19500

6313

13187

5527

-10539

-5452


Mexican Peso

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

04/28/2015

138497

38003

61394

78510

51737

26773

9662

-23391

-9716

05/05/2015

146418

24046

74162

102349

49406

52943

26170

-50116

-26725

05/12/2015

135526

34027

61066

79661

49638

30023

-22920

-27039

23077

05/19/2015

127349

23706

55037

82313

48724

33589

3566

-31331

-4292

05/26/2015

129030

23943

56459

84095

48042

36053

2464

-32516

-1185

06/02/2015

152809

33983

79110

101105

52866

48239

12186

-45127

-12611


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

 

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