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USD Super Cycle Update

August 27, 2017

My first chart is a 27 year Weekly showing a Fractal comparing the price action we are seeing today vis-a-vis the USD’s last Super Cycle top in 2001. The USD’s Super Cycles last 15 years Low to Low on average and my chart shows the critical role that the 200-wma plays in the USD’s Bull and Bear phases.

Clearly, the USD is teetering at critical support right now as my chart shows what happened the last time in 2002 when it lost this key, long-term, moving average. My second weekly chart shows a close up of the current Fractal Blue box in my first chart.

Shorter-term, the USD had another failed Trading Cycle on day 17, confirming for me that early August was a TCL/DCL and not the longer Intermediate Low I had been looking for. My normal timing band for a TCL/DCL on the dollar is 17-24 days so we have entered the early part of that band.

Meanwhile, here is the price action I am seeing in gold and GDX. If my Super Cycle analysis of the USD is correct, gold and precious metals should lead the broader CRB Index into a new Bull Market in the years ahead.

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Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis. Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.” Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.