Forget bond pricing as a way of gauging what inflation is going to do. The Fed is still buying the lion’s share of the bond market. So, while bonds have begun pricing in inflation, they have a lot more to price in over the next couple of...
When the LA Times wrote that “A record 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in November,” they said it was… a sign of confidence and more evidence that the U.S. job market is bouncing back strongly from last year’...
The Great Recession There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.–Mark TwainDo you ever see graphs like this one and wonder why the unemployment rate has almost completely normalized since the start of the COVID pandemic crash; and, yet,...
Not even close to transitory. After giving its turkey advice for Thanksgiving, the Federal Reserve finally gave up completely on the “Inflation is transitory” chorus it has been singing all year. Chairman Powell of the People’s Bank...
The US central bank has apparently taken on a new mandate — being your dietary coach, advising Americans to fight the inflation it helped ignite by eating tofurkey and other soy-based foods for Thanksgiving, instead of turkey....
One or two dimwits told me I was stupid to be thinking inflation would be the driving force of 2021 due to shortages and Fed money printing. The cockiest one even assured me his second-grade education in economics said inflation wasn’...
A little virus and a big set of misguided responses to it are sinking the unsinkable world.While third-quarter GDP growth came in a little higher than the Atlanta Fed was predicting, it still came in below the consensus of economists,...
In an effort to prove the Fed’s tapering won’t matter, I recently saw one stock advisor claim that, when the Fed tapered its QE from late 2015 into 2016, “the stock market rallied 60% in an almost straight line higher.”Wow! Let’s take a...
To keep it simple: Nope! Not this time anyway. That is, however, what you hear from the wistful market makers who want to see last week’s CPI release as proof inflation was “transitory.” Let me disabuse you of that fantasy entirely....
Interestingly, you’re about to find out that the fall in housing prices and home sales may power us further into high inflation for longer. We are entering a situation that could turn into a true oxymoron where lower prices equal higher...