Surf City

Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.” Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.

Articles by Surf City

I have the SPX on just day two of a new short-term Trading Cycle but many of the technical indicators I watch are showing signs that the momentum of the SPX’s longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle (IC) are starting to stall near the 3-month...
I need to see a bit more follow through confirmation in the days ahead, but it sure looks to me that the USD found support at the 50ma and found a short term Trading or Daily Cycle Low (TCL/ DCL) last Friday on day 24.

If I am correct,...
Are Soft commodities finding a major low here?  Could…be but it will vary by commodity and could take another few months to a year for some.

Here is update with charts on DBA, SOYB, JJG MOO and I may add Sugar and Coffee later if I...
My first chart is a 27 year Weekly showing a Fractal comparing the price action we are seeing today vis-a-vis the USD’s last Super Cycle top in 2001. The USD’s Super Cycles last 15 years Low to Low on average and my chart shows the...
My gut tells me that copper will likely test the $3 level before its 5-6 month Intermediate cycle tops out. The daily RSI is in the nosebleed section, however, as we are approaching the 3 month mark in its current uptrend.

Nearer term,...
Cycle Status/Outlook: Long-term I believe the USD found a 15-Year Super Cycle top in early 2015.  To confirm this we need to see the USD find a Yearly Cycle Low soon and bounce high enough to break the YC down trend line on my first...
USD Cycle Status/Outlook: Short term is a bit cloudy but my preferred count is day 10.  Longer term, it is clear that the USD is still seeking out its Yearly Cycle Low (YCL).   If my last ICL is correct, we are now nearing...
I thought I would start off this weekend by recapping one of the most important aspects of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Theory.  Very simply put, it is that Longer Cycles almost always dominate the shorter Cycles.  This is Huge...
This Update will provide both a near-term and long-term updates on the USD…and where I think it stands in its short and long-term cycles. My first two charts are the same near term daily chart. The first provides my cycle counts for the...
This is the first of several updates this weekend and I thought I would start with the USD.

This update has four Charts on the USD starting with longer-term charts…and then moving in for a close up view on the...
Spanish Conquistadores invaded the Inca Empire in 1528 to steal their silver and gold.