Expect More Volatility in Gold for 2015 as Interest Rates Rise
New York (Dec 31) Gold has only fallen 3% on the year as the metal has spent much of 2014 consolidating between $1,200 per ounce and $1,400 per ounce.
That consolidation is precisely what investors should continue to expect in 2015, says Eric Zuccarelli, an independent metals trader. Investors should also expect more volatility for the metal in the new year.
Interest rates, which are expected to climb in 2015, will likely put pressure on gold prices, especially with inflation as low as it is, he explained.
SPDR Gold ETF GLD data by YCharts
Gold prices are likely to stay within a $100 range for a while, he said. $50 to the downside from current levels around $1,183 seems to be acting as support, while $50 to the upside seems to be acting as resistance.
Geopolitical risks, with rising uncertainty in the Middle East and in Ukraine, has only temporarily boosted the price of gold. Each time one of these events have surfaced, the yellow metal spiked higher, only to fade back to previous levels, he reasoned.
It doesn't help that many other commodity prices, such as oil, have also been hit lately. A continued selloff could eventually weigh on gold prices as well.
In regards to copper, Zuccarelli says there will likely be a supply glut to start the year due to the weaker Chinese economy. However, as 2015 gets under way, a supply shortage seems likely to develop by the end of the year.
The oversupply in the beginning of the year will weigh on copper prices, while the lack of supply in the second half of the year could bolster prices.