Chicago (Mar 31) Recently the US Dollar was trading 0,14% higher against a basked of 6 other major currencies. At the same time, the American currency is up by 0,25% and 0,36% against the common European currency and the Swiss Franc respectively. This took place after today’s disappointing economic figures from the eurozone, including import prices and retail sales as well as consumer spending.
Meanwhile, commodity currencies are still strong against the US Dollar. This is happening due to higher oil prices and improving commodity-based economies. The New Zealand Dollar and its Australian and Canadian fellows have recently gained 0,20%, 0,18% and 0,27% against the US Dollar respectively.
As you know it is the USD index that is showing the dynamics of the US Dollar against 6 other major currencies. The Fed chose those 6 currencies that represent the biggest turnover. The currencies account for the following share:
EUR – 57,6%
JPY – 13,6%
GBP – 11,9%
CAD – 9,1%
SEK – 4,2%
CHF – 3,6%
As you can see, the biggest negative correlation is between the US Dollar and the common European currency. Consequently, EURUSD is reflected in the USD index most of all and has the biggest impact on the index.
At this point, the USD index is consolidating in advance of other economic reports and major events. One of the key events planned for the near future is another ECB meeting. The results of this event will definitely have a major impact on the future price move in the market of EURUSD. Apparently, the index will also be influenced by it. The meeting is sheduled for April 3rd.
Another major event to drive the market will be the eurozone’s inflation report. It is scheduled for March 31st. Therefore, the currency market is not going to be to volatile until then, especially as the Forex trading week is almost over.
According to the technical analysis of the USD index conducted by Masterforex-V Academy
, the H4 chart indicates price fluctuations within the scope of the 79,90 - 80,50 range. The US Dollar is supported by weaker-than-expected stats form the eurozone and the fact that the Fed is tapering its QE program.
If the rally resumes in the near future, it will head for the top of the range located at 80,50. If the index manages to break and consolidate above the top, it may well head for the next target, which is currently located at 80,91.
Alternatively, a further decline will give way to 79,90, and maybe even 79,37.