Gold And Silver Directionless, Palladium And Aluminium Bullish
London (Sept 1) Gold has weakened slightly since last month, slipping below both 50- and 200-day MAs, still confined in a year-plus symmetrical triangle. That formation rests midway between the wider trading range of 1,400 (1,420) and 1,300 as price has consolidated over a year.
There remains a series of lower highs all the way from the peak in price and continues within the past year’s trading. Now one might await a move through either resistance at 1,345 from July, or support at 1,242 from May to suggest which direction may provide a trade. The weekly momentum model is just turning negative (see lower arrow) suggesting there could be further weakness. The wider trading parameters above denote more structural intentions.
We reiterate that the support at 1,200 is also now the intersect with the very important level of the 2005 long-term uptrend, representing the bull market for Gold. A breach of this support / uptrend would bode ill for Gold and could suggest a further slip toward 1,150-1,000.
Silver – Struggling Near Support
Silver Spot price (SILV-19.47) has been weaker than Gold in that price is already testing the critical year-plus support at 18.23, again with lower peaks (evidence of selling the rallies), having slipped through support at 20. The weekly momentum has again turned negative suggesting there may be a breach of the above support with further downside risk.
Silver would need to achieve 22 to reverse the more negative profile in place.
Aluminum – Base in Place?
In hearing that Ford is going to move entirely to Aluminum for the F150, we took a quick look at the metal (LA1- 2,081.50, see Figure 30), and there is decidedly an impressive base completing currently. The 2011 downtrend has been penetrated and the year-long base appears complete over the past month-plus. The next price resistance is 2,200 and thereafter, close to 2,400; support 2,000. The weekly and the monthly momentum models have recently turned positive.