Gold Price Ends Down on Bearish Outside Markets, Very Negative Chart Posture
New York (Nov 23) Gold prices ended the US day session moderately lower Monday and are hovering close to last week’s 5.5-year low. Silver futures were also weaker and hit a six-year low today. The bearish posture of the key “outside markets” on this day and the very negative trader attitudes toward gold and silver, including their bearish charts, have allowed the sellers to continue to have their way in the precious metals markets. February Comex gold was last down $9.90 at $1,066.40 an ounce. March Comex silver was last down $0.056 at $14.07 an ounce.
The outside markets on Monday saw the U.S. dollar index higher and scoring a seven-month high. The USDX remains in a near-term price uptrend and the bulls have the firm technical advantage. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were lower and hit a three-month low overnight. Oil is trading just above $40.00 a barrel and bears are in solid technical control.
There is no doubt the precious metals bears are in a very comfortable position right now. Veteran traders and market watchers know that when attitudes about markets become extreme, that’s the point at which the vast majority of the major trending price move has already occurred. Neither I nor anyone else can predict the future and say gold is at or near a bottom. However, I am confident that with trader psychology about the gold and silver markets—and the raw commodity sector in general—being so very negative, that the marketplace will be surprised when the aforementioned markets do end their price downtrends—and it will be sooner than most would ever reckon.
Copper prices hit another six-year low Monday, which is a worrisome clue the grip of price deflation in the major world’s economies remains tight. Copper is a major construction input. Less demand for copper can be extrapolated to mean generally weaker construction levels occurring worldwide.
Trading activity in the U.S. markets is likely to wind down quickly as the week progresses, due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
Technically, February gold futures prices closed nearer the session low today and are hovering near last week’s contract and 5.5-year low. The gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The door is opened to a challenge of major psychological resistance at $1,000.00 in the coming weeks. Gold prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at Friday’s high of $1,087.30. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid longer-term technical support at 1,050.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,076.30 and then at $1,080.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,065.40 and then at the contract low of $1,062.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0
March silver futures prices closed near mid-range and hit another six-year low today. The silver market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.50 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $13.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.185 and then at last week’s high of $14.44. Next support is seen at today’s contract low of $13.89 and then at $13.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.
March N.Y. copper closed down 410 points at 201.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another contract and six-year low today. The key “outside markets were bearish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. Copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 220.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 200.00 cents.