IMF cuts growth forecast for US
London (June 16) THE International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the United States yesterday and said the economy would not reach full employment until the end of 2017, allowing the Federal Reserve to bide its time before raising interest rates.
In its annual health check of the American economy, the IMF also urged the US to boost the minimum wage, which is below most international standards, to fight poverty, which lingers above 15 percent.
The IMF forecast economic growth of 2 percent this year, below the 2.8 percent rate it predicted in April, due to a weak first quarter. It kept its 2015 forecast unchanged at 3 percent.
“Recent data ... suggest a meaningful rebound in activity is now underway and growth for the remainder of this year and 2015 should well exceed potential,” the IMF said.
Yet the country’s potential growth should only be around 2 percent going forward, below historical averages, as the population ages and productivity growth slows, according to the IMF.
“Given the substantial economic slack in the economy, there is a strong case to provide continued policy support,” the IMF said.
It said its forecasts show the US economy would only return to full employment by the end of 2017, with inflation remaining low, suggesting the Fed could keep rates at zero for longer than the middle of 2015.
The IMF urged the US to increase spending on infrastructure and education and change parts of its tax system, including boosting the federal gasoline tax and reinstating the tax credit for research and development, to help spur growth.
In the future, the US should also reform corporate taxes, introduce a carbon tax and move toward a federal value-added tax, according to the IMF.