Silver to $135… or Even $300? This Big Bank Thinks So…

Well, it seems being a silver bug could be going mainstream.

As we reported previously at Money Metals, Bank of America released an eye-popping silver forecast, saying the price could land anywhere between $135 to $309 by the end of this year.

Even the low end of that forecast would represent a 75 percent gain from the current level!

But $135 to $309 is also an extremely wide range for that forecast... this underscores the difficulty of reading the markets in such a volatile geopolitical period.

Bank of America head of metals research Michael Widmer bases his forecast on the gold-silver ratio -- the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40:1 and 60:1. Through the first 10 months of 2025, the gold-silver ratio was historically high, averaging 91:1. The ratio peaked in April of last year at 107:1.

By the end of the year, the ratio had plunged to 61:1 before falling to roughly 50 early this year when silver briefly broke above $110.

The ratio has crept back up in recent weeks and currently sits around 60:1, the high end of the historical norm. However, Bank of America's analyst pointed out that during significant silver bull markets, that ratio has dropped far below the average.

That’s the nature of averages. Sometimes things run far below the norm, and sometimes far above. Over the last several years, the gold-silver ratio has tended to run above the historic average. It wouldn’t be shocking for it to drop significantly below that level.

Widmer points out that in 2011, at the peak of the Great Recession precious metals bull market, the gold-silver ratio dropped to 32:1. Assuming $5,000 gold, that would push the silver price to $135.

Of course, we’ve seen gold-silver ratios even lower. During the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze in 1980, the ratio fell to 14:1. Such a ratio would yield a silver price of $309 right now.

There is even more upside if you believe the gold bull market still has legs. Many mainstream banks forecast $6,000 gold this year.

“I’ve highlighted before that the gold market has been very overbought. But it's actually still underinvested,” Widner said earlier this year. “There is still a lot of room for gold as a diversification tool in portfolios.”

Precious metals make up about 4 percent of the total financial market. However, within the professional investment sector, high-net-worth investors hold only 0.5 percent of their assets in gold. Last year, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson came out with an investment strategy that includes a 20 percent allocation to gold.

Even a small uptick in investment demand could drive the gold price higher. Widner said a 55 percent increase in gold investment would drive the metal to $8,000 an ounce. And that's the best-case scenario in Wells Fargo’s analysis.

If gold continues to move higher, it will almost certainly take silver with it. While a large percentage of silver demand comes from industrial offtake, it is still fundamentally viewed as a monetary metal, and it tends to track with gold over time.

A move to over $300 per ounce of silver may sound extreme, but these wild price moves aren’t unprecedented. Widner pointed out that silver more than tripled in 2011 while gold gained roughly 80 percent over the same 18-month stretch. He said he thinks 2026 sets up similarly, with gold’s momentum already well established.

More fundamentally, above-ground silver stockpiles have slowly but steadily drained over the past few years. This situation precipitated two silver squeezes that first drove prices above $50 and then took them to that January high of over $110.

A convergence of factors from market dynamics to logistical problems led to an unprecedented silver shortage. While the market dynamics that got us here might be difficult to untangle, the situation is about as basic as it gets.

There’s not enough silver.

The silver market recorded a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Last year, demand outstripped supply by over 40 million ounces (or 1,252 tonnes). That drove the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces.

Metals Focus forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce supply deficit this year.

In total, there has been a rundown of nearly half a billion ounces in the last 15 years.

When silver demand outstrips mining and recycling output, silver users must tap into aboveground stocks. That generally means rising prices to incentivize those holding silver to give it up.

That means the environment is right for additional silver squeezes.

Silver over $300 is certainly a best-case scenario, but it is clearly not out of the question. And even if the metal doesn’t reach those lofty heights this year, there is plenty of reason to remain bullish.

Let’s take a look at the weekly market action and check in on where we stand currently with a few hours left in the trading week.

Gold is down a little more than $100 or 2.3% to come in at $4,732 an ounce. Silver is down nearly $5 an ounce or 5.7% to trade at $76.87. Platinum is off 4.2% to check in at $2,028. And finally, palladium is also down 4.2% and comes in at $1,512 an ounce as of this Friday midday recording.

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