Are Stocks Turning Lower Again?

August 12, 2019

Friday’s trading session was bearish, as stock retraced their Thursday’s advance. However, the S&P 500 index remained above the 2,900 mark. So will the short-term uptrend reverse? Or is this just a downward correction before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes 0.3-1.0% on Friday, retracing their Thursday’s advance, as investors’ sentiment worsened following economic data releases, trade war fears. The S&P 500 index fell over 200 points from its previous Friday’s record high of 3,027.98 a week ago on Monday. Then it retraced almost 120 points of that sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at around 2,945-2,950, marked by some previous daily low and daily high. The resistance level is also at 2,980-3,000. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,890-2,900, marked by Thursday’s daily gap up of 2,892.17-2,894.47.

The broad stock market broke below its two-month-long upward trend line recently, and then it quickly retraced most of the June-July advance. The S&P 500 index remains below the previous medium-term local highs. For now, it looks like a consolidation following the January-February advance. However, it could also play out as a long-term topping pattern ahead of a more meaningful downward correction:

Negative Expectations Again

The index futures contracts trade 0.8% below their Friday’s closing prices. So expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are negative. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.2-0.5% so far. There will be no new important economic data releases today.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday downtrend, as it retraces its Friday’s intraday advance. The nearest important resistance level remains at 2,925-2,930, marked by the short-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,890-2,900. The futures contract trades along the 2,900 mark this morning, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Nasdaq 100 Also Lower

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday downtrend. It is closer to the 7,600 mark again. The nearest important resistance level is now at 7,700. On the other hand, the support level is at 7,550-7,600. The Nasdaq futures contract broke below its week-long upward trend line today, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Apple, Microsoft – Short-Term Uncertainty Following Rebound

Let's take a look at the Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). The stock continued to trade at the resistance level of $210-215 recently. It broke above the early May local high following quarterly earnings release. However, the market reversed downwards off its new medium-term high and then it broke below the upward trend line. On Thursday it got back above $200 price, as it retraced some of the sell-off:

Now let's take a look at the daily chart of Microsoft Corp. stock (MSFT). The stock reached the new record high of $141.68 in the late July following quarterly earnings release. But recently it retraced most of the advance and it broke below the two-month-long upward trend line. On last Monday it accelerated lower. However, on Thursday and on Friday the price retraced some more of the decline and it got back to the broken trend line:

Dow Jones – New Uptrend or Just Upward Correction?

The DJIA Index broke below its upward trend line recently. So the second half of July consolidation was a topping pattern. Then the market broke below the previous medium-term high and last week it came back below the 26,000 mark. There we saw short-term oversold conditions. And the index bounced off its 200-day moving average:

The S&P 500 index broke below the upward trend line recently, as investors reacted to the Fed’s Rate Decision release, among other factors. We saw technical overbought conditions along with negative technical divergences recently. And the market turned lower. Then it accelerated the downtrend following renewed trade war fears. The market reversed its downtrend on Wednesday and on Thursday it accelerated higher following breaking above the 2,900 mark. However, it still looks like a correction within a downtrend.

Concluding, the S&P500 index will likely open lower today. The market may continue to fluctuate following its recent sell-off.

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Paul Rejczak

Stock Trading Strategist

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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Paul Rejczak is a stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

US silver mining began on a large scale with the discovery of the Comstock Lode in Nevada in 1858.