Looming COMEX Silver Crisis
In a detailed video update, Clive Thompson explains how the COMEX could run out of deliverable silver as early as March. As of February 4, the exchange reportedly holds just 103 million ounces of registered silver available for delivery, while open interest stands at approximately 429 million ounces.
If 25% of those open contracts demand physical delivery, the COMEX could theoretically face a default. Even if the exchange manages to get through March without issue, there is a strong possibility that delivery pressures could resurface in May or July.
This leads me to believe that a failure to deliver physical silver could be the catalyst that drives prices sharply higher, potentially above $200 per ounce by summer.
Gold’s 1979 Mid-Cycle Pullback
In the chart below, I’ve overlaid (in white) the multi-year advance in gold leading into the 1980 peak. Note that the vertical rise was interrupted by a one-month mid-cycle pullback (yellow circle) before the final rally into a blow-off top. The trend and structure of gold’s late-1970s advance are very similar to the current move, which suggests this may be another mid-cycle pullback before new highs in Q2. If correct, prices could resume the uptrend in March and push towards $8,000 by April or May.
Silver Miners to Silver Ratio
Below is a great chart...






