Latest Silver Price Forecasts & Predictions

Silver has just witnessed a rare false breakout. A false breakout is when a market overcomes a defined level of selling pressure, only to fail to hold above that level following a period of consolidation. The result after a false breakout is often lower prices; however, context is key, as the market should only be expected to fall to the next visible support level.

In this article we will highlight silver’s recent false breakout, the expected support level it should decline toward, and the price trajectory pending following the summer low.

Silver’s False Breakout

We will refer to the chart below in the following discussion:

Note the clear resistance boundary of sellers (blue) which have emerged at lower and lower price intervals, following the 2021 peak in silver.

No matter the reasons for their selling, whether legitimate or manipulative, these entities have chosen to exit their silver positions at incrementally lower prices over the last two years. This forms the resistance boundary of sellers.

Note how in April of this year, silver briefly exceeded the resistance boundary of $24.00 for several weeks (red callout). It appeared that buyers had regained control of the market, that sellers had dried up, and that a new trend of higher prices was on its way.

However, within several weeks the steadfastness of these buyers waned, and sellers emerged once again, sending prices back below the former resistance boundary. This is what we call a false breakout.

Context is Key

False breakouts can be catastrophic topping signals if they occur after a prolonged advance.

However, they can also simply be short-term topping signals if they occur within a sideways or declining trend.

In all cases, context is key.

In the case of silver, prices have been trending lower for the last two years. Thus, the false breakout is not taken to be a sign of a major long-term top forming; the signal should instead be representative of an intermediate-term top.

How Low for Silver?

How low should silver be...

The silver price chart is as constructive as we could ask for in expectation of a rapid price appreciation starting in late-2023 and lasting through 2025. Upon a triggering of the current trading pattern, silver will target a price zone of $44 - $50 per ounce. Investors should use any price weakness over the coming months in either silver or high-quality silver miners to prepare for a rapid price appreciation starting later this year.

Silver’s Short-Term Bull Flag

Silver’s short-term trading pattern is known as a bull flag, so named for its resemblance to a flag on a flagpole.

For reference, the pattern as shown in trading textbooks is shown below:

Next, we view the silver chart from 2020 through present:

• Bull flag patterns are bullish continuation patterns. The “flag” or downward-sloping consolidation forms as a counter-trend to the prior impulsive movement.

• In the case of silver, the original impulsive move was higher as silver advanced from $11 to $30 between March and August of 2020, following the worldwide panic during the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic.

• Since early-2021, silver has been in the downward-sloping pause or “flag” portion of the bull flag pattern. During this time, we have witnessed overlapping waves of buying and selling, yet as a net sum silver has declined by $7.70 or 25.3% from the 2021 peak.

• Trading now in early February at $22.30 per ounce, silver is the same price that it was 2.5 years ago. However, sentiment in the silver sector is substantially lower than it was when silver first hit $22.30 during the summer of 2020. At the time, silver investors felt euphoria and jubilation as prices rose; today, impatience and despair have taken over in the precious metals sector. This, despite the price being exactly the same.

• The deterioration in silver sentiment amidst an overall sideways price movement is a necessary prerequisite to silver’s next...