Commodities, FOREX And Stocks Forecasts

November 7, 2016

Our forecast down phase for WTI has now begun. We warned that $50 would be the top and that we would descend into 2017 with a potential major low to come. Our forecast has not changed - and we could easily see price back down to $30 early in 2017. We expect this weakness to be reflected in many other parts of the commodity sector.

We have been forecasting for some time that the UK Pound would be the weakest of the major currencies going forward and so far it has been with the Euro not far behind.

The Euro has shown some strength over the past couple of weeks but it does not alter our longer term target, we still expect the Dollar to outperform most major currencies as we head in to 2017. The Euro has made a back test against the Dollar but is likely to continue falling heavily as we end the year.

We have been forecasting a correction in global stocks over the next six months. Our S&P500 forecast has remained on track for months. To be sure it has been indicating that we are on the verge of a period of weakness. Last week we saw lows not seen since July, this price action was entirely in line with our forecasts and we now expect to see the market drop in earnest towards the end of the year.

We are still forecasting a new down leg in commodities, a stronger US Dollar…and an even stronger Yen during the fourth quarter of this year. We anticipate the greenback strength will create the conditions for some key markets to sell off for a period, which will relieve some over-bought conditions necessary for a healthy market.

You can view live short-term forecasts at our website, they are a representation of our medium and long-term forecasts which always show the complete picture. Prices tend to be more random day to day than they are week to week or even month to month. Our short-term forecasts are always anchored against these larger patterns that barley change from week to week. Consequently, this is what allows us to be so confident with our shorter-term forecasts in spite of the increase in volatility.

Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years, we create a most probable long term fractal pattern and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.

Ken Ticehurst been a gold trader for over a decade and is currently developing a unique gold price forecasting system using fractal analysis and unique algorithms. He creates forecasts using different patterns that occur over daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In his view news does not move prices over the long-term, but rather that prices move news over the long-term. Human nature demands an explanation for every price move. It is his philosophy that day to day and even week to week moves are just noise disguising the long-term trends.
 
Ticehurst has a BSc.(Hons.) in Product Design from the University of the West of London with a commercial background in data analysis and research. Ken has been involved in markets as diverse as classic cars, construction and real estate.  He has seen bubbles grow and deflate time and again, subsequently giving birth to his galvanizing interest in the underlying sentiment that drives the fear and greed phases.  Ken’s website is:  http://www.kenticehurst.com
Peru became the world’s largest producer of silver in 2012.

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