Fed Goes All In - As In All In…And Stocks Like It (Part II)

March 25, 2020

As if the Fed’s unlimited QE wasn’t enough, we’ll get a $2T stimulus now. Predictably and much to our subscribers’ delight, the S&P 500 loved that. As it sprang to life, we’ve already cashed in an 82-point profit on that upswing. As we’re currently riding another immediately profitable open position, what kind of gain will it bring this time around? In other words, will the futures keep on climbing later today as well?

Cutting long story short, it’s highly likely. Let’s start our analysis with the daily chart examination (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Stocks both opened and closed on a strong note yesterday. And the volume wasn’t at all shabby. After the overnight climb higher, they ran into quite some fast and furious selling earlier today, which we partially avoided. Instead of seeing gains shrink, we still cashed in an 82-point profit. As the selling pressure dried up, we entered the market again, and are currently riding the momentum for an open gain of around 30 points as the futures change hands at over 2450 close to 11 o’clock Eastern time.

While the daily indicators are solidly in bearish territory, they’re increasingly curling higher, thus supporting another leg up.

Let’s remember our Monday’s notes regarding the market breadth indicators:

(…) While they all confirm the bears as being in the driving seat, new highs minus new lows reveals that the sellers aren’t as strong as they appear to be when one looks at price action only. The bullish percent index has also curled higher despite new 2020 lows being hit.

As a result, the market breadth indicators indicate a high likelihood of pause in the trend of continuously lower prices. Be it in the form of a sharp rally that runs out of steam relatively fast, or a somewhat more prolonged sideways trading with a bullish bias, it nonetheless justifies our decision earlier today to take the 168-point profit on our short positions off the table

On top of today’s and yesterday’s gains, these observations keep turning out as expected. The Summary just below captures the short-term outlook accompanied by the trading plan, which is reserved for our subscribers.

Summing up, while the bears have the upper hand, the potential for a temporary upswing to continue, is still there. And this Fed and stimulus-triggered move might surely stick on. As the markets like this move, it makes sense to give it the benefit of short-term doubt. Considering the risk-reward perspective, please see our game plan within the Trading position section.

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Monica Kingsley

Stock Trading Strategist

Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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