Positive Expectations Following Fed Decision Release

December 18, 2014

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,025 and profit target at 1,950, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish

Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish

Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral

Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes gained between 1.7% and 2.0% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent move down, as investors reacted to FOMC Rate Decision release, among others. The S&P 500 index bounced off support level at around 1,970-1,975, marked by Tuesday’s daily low. It has returned above the level of 2,000, which is positive. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,025-2,035, marked by some previous local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 1.1-1.3%. The main European stock market indexes have gained 1.0-2.5% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., Philadelphia Fed number, Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is in an intraday uptrend, as it trades considerably higher this morning. The nearest important level of support remains at around 2,000-2,010. On the other hand, possible resistance level is at around 2,050, marked by some previous local extremes, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) follows a similar path, as it remains in an intraday uptrend. The nearest important support level is at 4,180-4,200. For now, it looks like a correction within a short-term downtrend, however a positive downtrend reversal scenario cannot be excluded here:

Concluding, the broad stock market bounced off support level, as the S&P 500 index continued to fluctuate along the level of 2,000 yesterday. Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are very positive, however, we still continue to maintain our short position with entry point at 2,038 (November 12th opening price of the S&P 500 index). Stop-loss is at 2,025 and potential profit target remains at 1,950 (S&P 500 index). It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak

Stock Trading Strategist

Stock Trading Alerts


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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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