Silver Shines, Debt Soars: What Every Investor Needs to Know

In the latest Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey tackles two central themes roiling markets and politics: silver’s long-awaited breakout and the persistent failure of Congress to rein in spending, despite the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” 

Maharrey offers listeners both market insight and fiscal reality checks in this powerful June 2025 episode.

Silver’s Long-Awaited Breakout Begins

Silver is finally showing signs of life after years of lagging behind gold. The metal kicked off 2024 at $23.99 per ounce and closed the year at $28.91—a solid 20.5% gain. But the real story is unfolding in 2025.

In the first half of the year, silver has soared more than 50%. It recently broke through the psychologically and technically significant $35 resistance level, touching as high as $36.49. This marks the first time silver has hit those levels since 2011, when it briefly flirted with its all-time high near $50 per ounce.

While it has dipped slightly due to some profit-taking, silver has held firm above $36. That sustained strength above resistance is an encouraging signal that this rally may have legs. According to host Mike Maharrey, this could be the breakout investors have been waiting on for years.

Gold-Silver Ratio Signals a Shift

The gold-silver ratio offers another compelling piece of the puzzle. This ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, the ratio has hovered between 50:1 and 60:1. In recent years, however, it has climbed to extreme highs.

In 2024 and early 2025, the ratio sat in the 80s and even exceeded 100:1, peaking at 103:1 in April. That’s an enormous spread by historical standards and typically signals that silver is deeply undervalued.

Whenever the gold-silver ratio reaches these wide levels, it tends to snap back toward the historical mean—and it does so quickly. Past silver bull runs, including those in the 1980s and 2011, followed the same pattern. Gold moves first. Silver catches up explosively.

Maharrey believes we may be in the early innings of that exact scenario now.

Secular Cup and Handle Pattern Points to $50

Technical analysts are taking notice. A distinctive “cup and handle” pattern has emerged on silver’s long-term chart. The “cup” is formed by silver’s twin peaks of $50 per ounce in 1980 and again in 2011. Prices fell after each high but returned to the same level over a multi-decade span.

The “handle,” which is forming now, suggests a consolidation period before a major breakout. This chart pattern is a classic technical indicator that often precedes large price movements. The fact that it spans more than 40 years makes it especially powerful.

A similar long-term pattern appeared on gold’s chart before its 2023 breakout to new all-time highs. If silver follows the same path, a retest of the $50 level is not only possible—it may be imminent.

Deficits, Demand, and Supply Crunch Support the Rally

The fundamentals reinforce what the charts are signaling. Industrial demand for silver hit its fourth consecutive all-time high in 2024. At the same time, mine supply has remained flat.

The result? A staggering supply deficit.

Last year alone, the silver market experienced a 148.9 million ounce shortfall. Over the past four years, cumulative deficits have totaled 678 million ounces—equivalent to roughly ten months of global mine production at current rates.

This means that industrial users and investors are tapping into above-ground inventories to meet demand. With new supply failing to keep pace, the basic laws of economics suggest only one outcome: higher prices.

Demand is surging in key sectors, including solar energy, electronics, and electric vehicles. These aren’t short-term trends. They represent structural shifts that will likely continue to push silver demand higher for years to come.

Mainstream Analysts Turn Bullish

This isn’t just a niche view held by precious metals enthusiasts. Mainstream financial analysts and media outlets are now openly discussing the possibility of record silver prices.

Brien Lundin, editor of the Gold Newsletter, has projected that silver could hit $50 by the end of 2025. Other analysts believe we could see that milestone early in 2026.

Investor sentiment, which has long favored gold, is finally beginning to shift toward silver. Maharrey, who has held silver through its ups and downs, believes the next leg higher may already be underway. He advises investors to consider adding silver to their portfolios before prices move even higher.

The Big Beautiful Bill: A Fiscal Shell Game

Shifting from metals to fiscal policy, Maharrey delivers a harsh critique of the newly proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Despite the poetic name, the 142-page legislation is no masterpiece.

The bill includes permanent extensions of the 2016 tax cuts, along with some modest spending trims and new budget outlays. But according to the Congressional Budget Office, it would add $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years.

While supporters tout the bill as a down payment on fiscal responsibility, Maharrey sees it as more of the same: political theater that avoids confronting the real problem—overspending.

Why Spending Cuts Are Politically Impossible

Maharrey points out a fundamental truth about U.S. politics: cutting government spending is easy to talk about, but nearly impossible to do. Even if Congress eliminated every dollar of discretionary spending—which makes up only 27% of the federal budget—it wouldn’t fix the deficit.

The bulk of federal outlays go to entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. These programs are politically untouchable because they benefit voting blocs that are powerful and vocal, especially older Americans.

Maharrey argues that political incentives are at the heart of the issue. Elected officials focus on short-term approval and reelection, not long-term sustainability. No one wants to anger constituents by cutting their benefits, even if doing so would help fix the nation's long-term fiscal trajectory.

The Myth That Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves

Supporters of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act claim that tax cuts will lead to enough economic growth to offset the increase in deficits. Maharrey is unconvinced, citing decades of historical data that tell a different story.

He walks through the record:

The Reagan tax cuts of the 1980s did stimulate growth, but federal revenue as a percentage of GDP fell. The budget deficit grew from $79 billion in 1981 to $153 billion in 1989.

George W. Bush’s tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 also led to modest growth, but the federal surplus turned into a $458 billion deficit by 2008. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 34% to 39% during his presidency.

The Trump tax cuts in 2016 lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, but revenues came in $430 billion below projections in 2018 and 2019. The U.S. was already running a $1 trillion deficit before the COVID pandemic even began.

In each case, tax cuts failed to pay for themselves because spending kept rising faster than revenue. Maharrey argues that these policies ignore a basic principle: the U.S. doesn’t have a revenue problem. It has a spending addiction.

The Debt Elephant in the Room

The U.S. national debt now exceeds $36 trillion. Every president since Herbert Hoover has left office with more debt than when he entered. Yet few in Congress seem serious about reversing this trend.

Maharrey warns that the consequences are mounting. As deficits grow, the government becomes increasingly dependent on the Federal Reserve to finance its debt through bond purchases—a process that is inherently inflationary.

The risks to the bond market, inflation outlook, and dollar stability are rising. When investors lose confidence in the government’s ability to service its debt without printing more money, they look for alternatives.

That’s where gold and silver come in.

Silver Still Offers a Strategic Entry Point

Despite its strong start to the year, silver remains well below its inflation-adjusted all-time high. At around $36 per ounce, it still offers significant upside potential if, as many analysts expect, prices move toward or beyond $50.

Maharrey encourages investors to view any dips in price as opportunities. If silver does reach $50 by year-end, today’s price could represent a highly attractive entry point. The technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment are all lining up—and for those concerned about fiscal mismanagement, silver offers not just growth potential, but protection.

In a world of mounting debt and monetary uncertainty, real money still matters. And silver, it seems, may finally be stepping back into the spotlight.

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