Start With Hope

July 24, 2020

Fake it till you make it – not quite that easy in trading with constant losses. You do need to start with hope though. Looking at our last round of entries into the Silver since mid-March of this year, this nemesis played out well again. Nobody knows the future but something seems to be going right. While most are posting rewrites of news and provide more or less a saga of “prices might be going up, but is sideways now and possibly goes down” we actual make calls! We post them live. And we do this with no other fuel in the tank than anybody else. We start with hope. Then we lay a lot of hard work over it and try to get it right.

Leaning into this hope with tremendous efforts of work can bring in trading the results desired. This principle works in all high performing professions. It is simply a matter of perseverance and luckily in the sport of market participation rewards can be plentiful. The recent aggressive reload method we applied to the Silver market was such an opportunity for success and is still in its infancy for what we truly think of where the silver market is heading.

Silver, Daily Chart: Statistics, Where The Rubber Meets The Road

Silver in US-Dollar, daily chart as of July 23rd, 2020.

Since mid of March, we have been pounding into the Silver market aggressively with thirteen entries. Nine of which were winning trades, two losing trades, and two break even trades which results in an 81% hit rate. We still have four trades due to our quad exit strategy, with runners exposed to the market. With the start of these live entry and exit postings in August of 2018 we now have a total of 50 trades with a hit rate of 89.40%. The average runner return is at 4.76% per trade and average risk exposure at just 1%. Keeping it honest is one necessary way to support this hope. But of course, one cannot trade on hope alone.

Silver, Monthly Chart: First Successes Are Just So Sweet

Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 23rd, 2020.

The monthly chart shows why we are so optimistic. Just as presumed in previous chartbook releases Silver prices finally broke through the sideways range established since 2014. This provides now for a significant long term bullish scenario and allowed for the first significant profit-taking into this breakout liquidity.

Silver, Monthly Chart: Start With Hope

Silver in US-Dollar, monthly chart as of July 23rd, 2020. b

The monthly chart shows our next target for partial profit-taking at US$24.217. We want to emphasize that we do not take any profits in our physical silver holdings at any of these levels so far. We urged physical participation at the March lows and expect from a long term view a possibility of three-digit numbers for the Silver market.

Start with hope

It does not matter if you have been trading for five, fifteen, or fifty years, confidence in one’s ability and a determination to succeed is necessary for an elevated outcome. Henry David Thoreau worded it best: If one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life which he has imagined, he will meet with a success unexpected in common hours.

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About the Author: Korbinian Koller

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Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent.Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.

During 1500s the Spaniards had taken 16,000,000 kilograms of silver from Peru.

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