Gold in for 2nd-Straight Weekly Gain Amid Rate Cut Hopes

July 20, 2019

London (July 22)  Expectations for a U.S. rate cut before the start of August is keeping gold supported in the $1,400 range, landing a second-straight week of gains for the precious metal {68|Spot gold}}, reflective of trades in bullion, traded at $1,428.85 per ounce by 1:36 PM ET (17:36 GMT), down $1.45, or 0.1%, on the day.

Gold futures for August delivery, traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, slipped $1.40 to settle at $1,426.70.

Bullion and futures of gold rose about 0.6% on the week despite weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data, while the IMF called the dollar "overvalued."

In several tweets, President Donald Trump repeated his call for lower interest rates on Friday and accused the Fed of sticking to a “faulty thought process” as markets contemplate the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut at the July 30-31 policy meeting.

Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly shrugged off Trump’s attacks, citing the central bank’s independence and a lack of necessity to responding to short-term political pressure, markets are convinced there will be at least a quarter-point cut and there's a 60% chance rates will be 50 basis points lower after the September policy meeting, according to's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. That would put the key federal funds rate at 1.75% to 2%.

Beyond the Fed, central banks worldwide have been taking an increasingly dovish stance on monetary policy to the benefit of non-yielding gold.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to give signs of further easing next week, with market odds for a cut having even surpassed 50% on Friday, while smaller central banks such as South Korea or South Africa already took action on Thursday.

The outlook for lower interest rates has spread across the fixed income market resulting in $13 trillion worth of bonds with negative yields, increasing the appeal of gold.

John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council, compared the performance of gold to bond yields in a series of tweets and reminded his followers that “zero is just a level, not a floor”.

 In another bullish factor for the outlook, the “hoarding” of gold by central banks looked set to continue for the following year, according to a survey conducted by the World Gold Council and YouGov.

According to the poll of central banks, 54% of respondents expect global holdings to climb in the next 12 months amid concerns about risks in other reserve assets.

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