Gold And Silver See Corrective Rebounds

July 12, 2018

New York (July 12)  Gold and silver prices are firmer in early-afternoon U.S. dealings Thursday. Some short covering in the futures market is featured, following recent selling pressure. Still, buying interest remains squelched by a solid rally in world stock markets today and a generally “risk-on” trading mentality in the marketplace recently. Silver prices fell to a 12-month low overnight, before bouncing. August gold futures were last up $3.10 an ounce at $1,247.50. July Comex silver was last up $0.193 at $16.01 an ounce.

The feature in the marketplace late this week is U.S. President Trump in Europe meeting with European leaders, with a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for next Monday. The marketplace will watch Trump’s meetings closely. The just-concluded NATO meeting was declared a success by Trump.

Today’s release of the June U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report came in a up 0.1% versus the forecast of being up 0.2% from May. On an annualized basis, the CPI was up 2.9%, which is the highest level in six years. Still, by the lack of reaction in the markets, these numbers are not (yet) deemed problematic for inflation.

In overnight news, the European Commission projected the Euro zone inflation rate at 1.7% in 2018 and in 2019, which is up just slightly from their earlier forecasts.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices lower on follow-through selling from strong losses posted Wednesday, and are back below $70.00 a barrel. There are now chart clues the crude oil market has topped out, which would be a bearish development for the raw commodity sector.

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is near steady, but the greenback bulls have regained some momentum late this week.

Technically, gold prices are not far above last week’s 12-month-low. The gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,275.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,230.00. First resistance is seen at $1,250.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,257.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,241.40 and then at last week’s low of $1,238.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $16.25 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.55. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $16.26 and then at $16.40. Next support is seen at today’s low of $15.78 and then at $15.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.


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