The Gold ETF Is Struggling, Commodities Slip On Oil, As The Dollar Stays Strong

November 12, 2018

London (Nov 12) The Gold ETF ($114.48 on Nov. 9) is down 7.4% year to date, and its daily chart shows the ETF below a "death cross" which was confirmed on June 22 when the 50-day simple moving average fell below the 200-day simple moving average, indicating that lower prices would follow. This tracked the ETF to its 2018 low of $111.06 set on Aug. 15. The weekly chart is neutral with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $115.19 and below its 200-week simple moving average or "reversion to the mean" at $117.67 last tested during the week of Oct. 26. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 68.38 last week, up from 66.43 on Nov. 9.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my monthly, quarterly and semiannual value levels of $111.60, $110.26 and $103.62, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to the 200-day simple moving average of $120.14. My annual risky level remains at $146.20.


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