Gold Price Dips as U.S. Rate-Cut Expectations Slide

October 7, 2019

New York (Oct 7)  There are three weeks between the gold market and the next potential U.S. interest-rate cut. Yet gold longs can’t seem to wait as the yellow metal’s price dipped on Monday on fears the Federal Reserve will not ease at its policy meeting later this month.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $8.50, or 0.6%, at $1,504.40 per ounce as’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool showed the probability for a quarter-point cut when the Fed meets Oct. 28-29 at 72.7%, versus 78% on Friday.

The reduced probability for a rate cut continued to hurt gold in post-settlemt trade, pushing it beneath the key $1,500 support.

By 3:15 PM ET (19:15 GMT), December gold fell $15.45, or 1%, to $1,497.45.

Spot gold, reflective of trades in bullion, slipped $12.63, or 0.8%, to $1,492.11.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of the central bank’s most outspoken policy doves, said that while the Fed should be supporting the economy from downside risks, there was no clarity on the number of rate cuts required of it, Bloomberg reported.

Gold longs took that as a measure of uncertainty.

“While a series of U.S. data prints suggested that the American growth engine may be at risk of stalling, and has seen October Fed pricing incorporate a near 75% likelihood of a cut, gold prices have still struggled to rally much further,” TD Securities said in a note.

“Given the non farm print failed to lock in the October cut, and more importantly, the change in language vis-a-vis the prospect of further cuts, the market is likely to take a wait-and-see approach with trade talks as the next major catalyst for the complex.”

Gold rallied on Friday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank was examining strategies that might help it to symmetrically and sustainably achieve 2% inflation.

So far this year, the Fed has conducted two quarter-point rate cuts, back to back in July and September, to try and preserve the U.S. economy's record decade-long growth.

Rate-cut expectations have cooled after upward revisions to job gains in the prior months and a jobless rate at a 50-year low failed to support the recession narrative.


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