Gold Price Retains Safe Bid As US Equities Retreat On Hawkish FOMC Minutes

October 19, 2018

New York (Oct 19)  Gold -The correlation between the US Dollar and gold broke down this week with the yellow metal posting its third consecutive weekly gain despite the rally in USD. Much of this dynamic is explained through the continued slide in equity markets this week, fuelling a strong safe haven bid in gold. After rallying initially on the week, US equities slumped mid-week as the US Dollar gained traction again in response to the hawkish US FOMC minutes, which confirmed that the majority of FOMC members view further rate hikes as necessary given economic momentum.

The market is widely expecting a fourth .25% rate hike in December this year. The release of the latest economic data continued to support this view with the leading economic index rising 0.5% in September along with solid numbers in both initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook. Despite the gains in USD though, it seems that while equities continue to display weakness, gold will retain a bid.

The rally in gold has taken price back up to retest the underside of the broken December 2017 low of 1235.30 which is holding as resistance for now. Above there and focus will be on a test of the broken rising trend line from 2015 lows. To the downside, the 2018 low of 1158.84 is the first key level with the late 2016 low of 1121.63 below that.


Silver prices were broadly unchanged on the week, giving up initial strength in response to the renewed slump in equity prices. Silver was hard hit last week on the drop in US equities given the metals industrial usage which often sees it trading in tandem with US equities, particularly the industrial average.

Silver prices remain sat just above the 13.6704 – 13.9612 level support which has stemmed the decline for now. However, unless the price makes it back above the 15.1825 – 15.5734 level, the focus will be on the further downside.

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