Gold price slips as trade deal hopes fuel risk appetite

November 5, 2019

London (Nov 5)  Gold fell on Tuesday as European stocks were buoyed by optimism surrounding US-China trade ties and fading fears of a recession, deflecting investors' interest from the safe haven metal.

Spot gold fell 0.3 per cent to $1,504.21 per ounce at 1039 GMT, while US gold futures was down 0.3 per cent to $1,506.30.

"Gold investors are leaving safe-havens and sailing into more risky waters," Quantitative Commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig said.

Not just the signing of a deal, but a clear signal of an improvement in the economic situation may cause gold to fall and break out of its current range, he added.

World shares climbed back towards record highs as hopes that Washington may roll back some of the tariffs it has imposed on Chinese imports rekindled optimism on the global economic outlook.

China hopes to remove more tariffs imposed by the United States in September as part of a "phase one" US-China trade deal, which may be signed this month by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at a yet-to-be determined location.

"If the economy recovers as the US Federal Reserve expects, there might be no further rate cuts next year and that is another factor weighing currently on gold," QCR's Fertig said.

Last week, the Fed cut interest rates for a third time this year, but signalled there would be no further reductions unless the economy takes a turn for the worse.

After data last week showed US job growth had slowed less than expected in October, investors now await a US ISM non-manufacturing report due on Tuesday that is forecast to show activity accelerated slightly in October.

On the technical front, "the main trend remains positive, even if markets seem to be waiting for fresh catalysts. In the short term, there is now clear directionality, with prices moving between $1,480 and $1,520," Carlo Alberto De Casa, ActivTrades' chief analyst, said in a note.

Among other metals, silver was flat at $18.05 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.2 per cent to $934.25 per ounce, having fallen over 1 per cent in the previous session.

Palladium rose 0.3 per cent to $1,785.12 an ounce, after sliding 1.5 per cent in the previous session. The metal hit an all-time high of $1,824.50 on Oct. 30, driven by a sustained supply crunch for the autocatalyst metal.

"With palladium expected to stay in deficit and new mine-supply additions lacking next year, prices are likely to remain propped up to incentivize more scrap supply and curb demand growth," UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in a note.


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