Gold / Silver / Copper Prices - Weekly Outlook: February 11 - 15

February 10, 2019

London (Feb 10)  This week precious metals traders will be monitoring U.S. economic data for its impact on the greenback, one of the biggest drivers for gold, after concerns over the gloomy global economic outlook boosted the dollar on Friday and saw gold post its first weekly decline in three.

Investors will get an update on U.S. inflation figures after the Federal Reserve said it will be patient as it considers whether to continue hiking interest rates.

Other U.S. economic reports due this week include consumer prices on Wednesday, producer prices and December retail sales figures on Thursday and industrial production on Friday. The retail sales report had been delayed by the temporary government shutdown.

Market watchers will also be following progress in U.S. - China trade talks, with meetings between officials from the two sides due to start in Beijing on Monday.

A 90-day trade truce between Washington and Beijing is due to expire on March 1. If the deadline passes without a deal, President Donald Trump has said he could follow through on his threat to increase tariffs on Chinese goods.

Meanwhile, Trump and congressional lawmakers have until Friday to agree on a budget deal to avert another partial shutdown of the federal government.

Trump has said he may declare a national emergency to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border if he cannot reach a deal with Democrats.

Gold futures settled up 0.32% at $1,318.35 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange late Friday. For the week prices slid 0.27%, snapping two weeks of gains.

"With equities a little lower here, we're getting some flight to safety in gold," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

"The fact that the U.S. economy is not seeing weak data like the euro zone is supportive of the dollar. If the dollar was a little weaker today, gold would probably be up $7 or $8, instead of $3."

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.13% at 96.41 late Friday. For the week, the index gained 1.17%, its biggest weekly increase since a 1.23% jump in the week of May 13, 2018.

Gold is often sensitive to movements in the dollar. A stronger greenback is seen as a headwind for commodities priced in dollars as it makes them more expensive to holders of other currencies.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver was up 0.73% to $15.82 a troy ounce, while copper ended at $2.813, off 0.55% for the day.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 11

The U.K. is to release data on GDP and manufacturing and industrial production.

Tuesday, February 12

Australia is to report on hoe loans and business confidence.

Japan is to publish preliminary data on machine tool orders.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in London.

Later in the day Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks in Mississippi.

Wednesday, February 13

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.K. is to publish inflation figures.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to also publish inflation data.

Thursday, February 14

Japan is to release preliminary data on GDP.

China is to publish its latest trade figures.

The euro zone is to produce revised data on GDP growth and employment change.

The U.S. is to release reports on retail sales, producer prices and jobless claims.

Canada is to report on manufacturing sales.

Friday, February 15

China is to release data on inflation.

The U.K. is to report its latest retail sales figures.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the Empire State manufacturing index, a report on industrial production and preliminary data on consumer sentiment

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