Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: CPI Data Lifts Metals, Risk-On Caps Gains

LONDON (August 13) Gold steadies above $3,336 as U.S. CPI meets forecasts, keeping Fed rate cut bets alive for September.  Silver climbs to $38.40 on weaker dollar and industrial demand optimism from improving trade flows.

Gold traded in a narrow band during Asian hours on Wednesday after recovering from a recent one-and-a-half-week low. The metal drew support from July U.S. inflation data that aligned with market expectations. Headline CPI held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI climbed to 3.1% from 2.9% in June.

Monthly gains of 0.2% for CPI and 0.3% for core CPI met forecasts, helping to temper concerns about persistent inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in the likelihood of at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end, with September seen as the first move. This outlook weighed on the U.S. dollar, providing a boost to non-yielding gold.

Silver rose 0.74% to $38.19, buoyed by the weaker dollar and firming industrial demand prospects. Analysts cited steady manufacturing activity and improving global trade flows as additional supports for the white metal.

Improved Risk Sentiment Limits Safe-Haven Demand

Beyond monetary policy, easing trade tensions added to the macro backdrop. President Trump extended the U.S.–China tariff truce for three months, while market participants looked ahead to a U.S.–Russia summit later in the week as a possible step toward broader diplomatic progress.

These developments improved global risk sentiment, reflected in fresh record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 surpassing 43,000 for the first time.

While supportive for growth assets, this risk-on tone curtailed safe-haven flows into gold, offsetting part of the benefit from the softer dollar. “Gold remains underpinned by Fed policy expectations, but strong equity performance is drawing capital elsewhere,” one commodity strategist noted.

Market Focus Shifts to Upcoming Data and Fed Speakers

Traders now turn to remarks from Federal Open Market Committee members later Wednesday for clues on policy direction. Thursday’s U.S. Producer Price Index and Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are expected to provide further guidance on inflation trends and consumer outlook.

Market positioning remains cautious, as recent rallies in both gold and silver have stalled despite favorable fundamentals. Analysts say the metals may need a fresh catalyst, either from economic data or a shift in Fed rhetoric, to regain upward momentum in the near term.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may consolidate in the near term, holding above $3,336 support while testing key moving averages. A breakout above $3,376 could target $3,409, but failure risks a pullback.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $3,359, attempting to recover after finding support at $3,336 along an ascending trendline from late July. Price is testing the confluence of the 50-EMA ($3,360.61) and 100-EMA ($3,360.24), with the next resistance level at $3,376.47. A decisive break above this zone could open the way toward $3,409.11.

The RSI at 52.70 indicates neutral momentum, with room to extend gains if buyers maintain control. Failure to clear the EMAs may trigger a pullback toward $3,336, with further downside risk to $3,312.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart

Silver is trading at $38.40, extending gains after rebounding from trendline support near $38.02. Price has reclaimed both the 50-EMA ($37.95) and 100-EMA ($37.89), reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is at $38.49, a break of which could open the path toward $38.97 and $39.53.

FXEmpire

The RSI at 66.35 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting momentum is strong but caution is warranted for potential pullbacks. If resistance holds, support remains at $38.02, followed by $37.52.