Morgan Stanley turns bearish on EM currencies

September 30, 2019

LONDON (Sept 30) - Morgan Stanley said on Monday it had turned bearish on emerging market currencies and entered a long position in U.S. dollar-South African rand as well as buying five-year credit default swaps for Brazil and Colombia.

"A range of October risks such as trade talks, tight USD liquidity, relative monetary policy/growth differentials and EM supply cause us to switch back to a bearish EMFX stance," Morgan Stanley strategist James Lord said in a note to clients.

Monetary policy and growth differential favoured the U.S. dollar over emerging currencies, Lord wrote, adding that the possibility of Washington restricting capital flows to China, quarter-end liquidity tightness, as well as quantitative signals for a risk-off stance all had contributed to the change in position.


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