Gold price firmer ahead of U.S. data, including FOMC

New York (Jun 15)  Gold prices are slightly up in early morning U.S. trading Tuesday, as the market awaits a slew of important U.S. economic data due out today, and amid the start of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. August gold futures were last up $2.30 at $1,866.90 and July Comex silver was last down $0.264 at $27.78 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins and at record highs in the S&P500 and Nasdaq stock index futures. The past several weeks have seen little risk aversion in the marketplace and that’s been bullish for the global stock markets.   

Traders will be eyeing today’s U.S. retail sales report for May, expected to come in at down 0.6% from April. The May producer price index is another important data point out on a very busy report day today, and is expected to come in at up 0.5% from April.

Also, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. While no major changes are expected for U.S. monetary policy, focus will be on the Fed’s tenor on inflation prospects and when the central bank will start to taper its very easy money policies. Fed officials recently have hinted they will begin discussing a timetable for reducing its bond-buying program (quantitative easing) sooner rather than later.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $72.00 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $71.95 overnight. The key U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.485%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store sales index and the Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, the NAHB housing market index, and Treasury international capital data.

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A nine-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,810.70. First resistance is seen at $1,875.00 and then at Monday’s high of $1,879.70. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,860.10 and then at this week’s low of $1,845.70.

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