JP Morgan raises global recession risk to 60% as Trump’s tariffs hit U.S. growth

NEW YORK (April 3) JPM analysts say Trump’s combined tariff hikes amount to a 22% increase—comparable to the largest U.S. tax rise since 1968. As a result, the bank has raised its estimated risk of a global recession to 60%, up from 40%.

The note highlights concerns that the economic impact could be worsened by potential retaliation, supply chain disruptions, and a hit to business confidence. JPMorgan also warns that ongoing trade restrictions and reduced immigration could lead to long-term supply-side issues that dampen U.S. growth.

Still, the bank notes that both the U.S. and global economies remain fundamentally strong and should be able to absorb a moderate shock, though it expects further policy developments in the near future.

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