Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Signals and Tariffs Shape Outlook
LONDON (July 17) Gold prices eased during Thursday’s Asian session, retreating from near a three-week peak of $3,337 as the U.S. dollar regained traction and traders tempered expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Silver followed suit, hovering near the $37.82 mark, weighed by diminishing safe-haven flows and technical consolidation.
Dollar Strength Undermines Metal Demand
The rebound in the U.S. dollar was triggered by President Donald Trump’s dismissal of rumors he planned to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. “I have no intention of firing Jay Powell,” Trump said during a press briefing late Wednesday, which helped stabilize markets and reduced pressure on the dollar.
Simultaneously, Fed policymakers signaled limited urgency for easing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan cited tariff-related inflation risks, while the New York Fed’s John Williams noted that current policy remains appropriate, given labor strength and stable growth.
These statements pushed back expectations for a rate cut until at least September. CME FedWatch data reflects a 63% probability of a 25bps cut by the September meeting, down from 78% last week.
Gold Holds Ground Amid Tariff Risks, Flat PPI Print
Despite the pullback, gold remains supported by geopolitical tension and lingering tariff threats. Trump’s recent notification of new tariffs affecting 25 countries, effective August 1, has clouded global trade expectations. This keeps the downside limited for non-yielding assets like gold.
Economic data remains mixed. The June U.S. Producer Price Index came in flat versus expectations of a 0.1% rise, hinting at subdued inflation and potentially giving the Fed room to act later in the year.
Meanwhile, markets await Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due Thursday.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold and silver remain rangebound amid firmer Fed tone and tariff uncertainty. Near-term bias leans bearish unless gold reclaims $3,342 and silver breaks $38.03 to signal renewed upside momentum.
FXEmpire
