Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Bounces as Buyers Defend the 50-Day — Silver News & Outlook
LONDON (November 21) Silver slipped on Friday, but the tone wasn’t as heavy as it looked early on. The market briefly cracked the 61.8% retracement at $48.93 and even printed an intraday low at $48.64.
But once price got close to the 50-day moving average at $48.31, buyers stepped in and took some of the sting out of the selloff. That level is the whole story right now. It’s the line traders are defending, and the line that could unravel the chart if it gives way.
Key Levels Hold — For Now
The 50-day has been the most important indicator on the board for weeks, and nothing changed today. A first test could still attract dip-buyers, but if it cracks, the air thins fast. The next real floors don’t show up until the swing bottoms at $46.88 and $45.55. Bigger picture, the long-term pivot at $41.40 sits as the major downside magnet if things get disorderly.
And that’s not impossible. A sharp break could easily be driven by a washout in speculative positioning or another round of dumping across risk assets — the same pressure that’s been hitting Bitcoin and U.S. equities over the past two sessions. That type of move doesn’t need a story; it just needs one bad push and thin liquidity to do the rest.
Upside Still Has a Path
From the bottom up, the market has a clear line in the sand: $49.97 to $50.02. If silver can get a clean push through that pocket, it opens the door to $51.07, and above that sits the swing top at $52.47. Traders aren’t chasing that move yet, but the setup is there if sentiment firms.
Rates Cool Off After Williams’ Comments
Fed member John Williams offered a spark earlier today, suggesting the Fed could cut rates in December. That comment helped flip sentiment for a few hours, pulling Treasury yields lower across the curve and giving silver a bit of breathing room.
The 10-year dipped toward 4.06%, the 2-year slid to roughly 3.51%, and even the 30-year eased. Fed funds futures jumped to pricing in a more than 70% chance of a December cut — a big jump from sub-40% just a day earlier.
A softer rate backdrop usually gives silver some traction, especially when stocks stop bleeding. And with equities stabilizing after Thursday’s drop, the metal found enough room to bounce off the lows.
Bottom Line for Traders
Silver is trying to hold its footing, but the market still feels cautious. If the 50-day holds, the market has room to grind higher toward the $50 zone. If it breaks, sellers will press fast.
The next directional move likely comes from either a washout in risk assets or a stronger conviction that the Fed really is cutting next month. For now, traders are buying dips — but only with one hand.
FXEmpire
