Silver (XAG) Forecast: Trump Davos Speech Could Trigger Silver Rally Breakout
LONDON (January 21) Silver futures are slightly better on Wednesday after touching a new contract high the previous session at $95.78, pulled higher by spot gold (XAUUSD) which rose to a new record high at $4888.55 today. Silver jumped more than 147% in 2025 and has gained more than 32% since the start of 2026.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand
Escalating geopolitical tensions drove safe-haven demand for precious metals with silver probing lightly into uncharted territory as investors bought the metal as a hedge against rising political risk. A softer U.S. Dollar also provided an additional tailwind for dollar-denominated silver.
Strong Fundamentals Meet Short-Term Volatility
While the long-term bullish fundamentals remain intact – low supply and high demand – short-term factors are driving the volatility as traders seek protection against falling U.S. assets. European investors are allegedly selling the U.S. as they seek to retaliate against President Trump’s renewed tariff threats against Europe over control of Greenland.
Trump Speech and Fed Leadership Change Could Spark Volatility
Silver traders could face heightened volatility on Wednesday when President Trump is expected to deliver a speech at an economic conference in Davos, Switzerland at 13:30 GMT, followed by an expected meeting with global business leaders.
In addition to this headline-driven event, markets are also pricing in two rate cuts of 25-basis points from mid-2026 while focus was spotlighted after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump could name a new Federal Reserve chair as early as next week. This is potentially big news because the Fed’s autonomy has been in the news lately with Trump’s justice department opening a probe over Fed Chair Powell’s involvement in a central bank building renovation project.
Fed Independence Concerns Support Silver Bulls
Some traders feel that Trump is trying to influence the Fed’s independence over the direction of interest rates, which should lead to a weaker dollar, benefitting silver. Other silver bulls are hoping that Trump nominates a “dove” or someone who also believes interest rates should be lower.
Technical Outlook: Uptrend Firmly Intact
Daily March Silver Futures
Technically for March Comex Silver, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through Tuesday’s high at $95.78 will reaffirm the uptrend. The closest minor support is the pivot at $90.95, followed by a minor swing bottom at $86.12. A trade through this level will shift momentum to the downside. The next support is $82.51, followed by a long-term uptrend line at $79.68.
Daily Silver (XAG/USD)
The Spot Silver (XAGUSD) main trend is also up. A trade through the record high at $95.88 will reaffirm the uptrend, while a move through $86.43 will shift momentum to the downside. Potential support levels come in at $91.15 and $82.97.
Gold/Silver Ratio Signals Shifting Money Flows
Daily Gold/Silver Ratio
Traders should note the Gold/Silver ratio, which has been consolidating around the 50.00 level for six sessions. This suggests more money may be flowing into gold than silver at this time. While it doesn’t change silver’s fundamental outlook, it may indicate that silver’s upward momentum could moderate relative to gold. The ratio has plunged from 82.863 on November 21, when silver started on its historic rise.
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