One-year price forecast of gold, silver and platinum group metals
London (Nov 2) With regard to gold price forecasts, should people trust expert advice, trend charts, or just guesses? Of course, the annual London Gold and Silver Market Association (LBMA) / London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) meeting will include all of this, so the annual forecast of precious metal prices through opinion polls represents a consensus and should be considered.
As a result, the 2018 Boston year-end meeting poll (Boston end-conference poll) conducted in late October showed that this figure may look extraordinarily accurate in terms of gold, with an average price forecast of $1532 an ounce. The optimistic survey results came at a time when gold was struggling to stay at about $1200 an ounce. Forecasting the price of gold a year in advance is an objectionable task and is sure to be prone to a lot of "underspeculation" or "overspeculation", as individual "experts" who contribute to LBMA year-end forecasting games are often chagrined. But last year's "post-vote poll" was a clear success, showing an average of close to a few weeks of gold prices, which is drawing attention to this year's forecast, which is both a potentially precise target price level. it is also a basis for determining your own precious metals investment strategy.
This year's annual LBMA/LPPM meeting was held in Shenzhen, China, and ended on October 13. The unofficial average prices of the four major precious metals for the coming year are as follows: $1658 for gold, $23 for silver, $1182 for platinum and $1924 for palladium. As a result, while delegates were confident in gold, they were more confident in silver and platinum, both of which are expected to rise more than 30 per cent, while palladium and gold rose about 10 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively.
While we agree that gold prices may rise by mid-October, we will be more cautious about silver and platinum group metals, especially the latter. Although gold is still a currency / investment metal, the demand parameters for other metals, especially platinum group metals, account for a much larger share of the industry. Demand for the latter depends heavily on platinum in the diesel market and palladium in the gasoline internal combustion engine market, which are in a seemingly endless downturn. While increasing anti-pollution legislation may mean an increase in platinum group metal loads in emission control catalysts (large markets), this is offset by lower sales of cars and trucks, and the fundamentals of platinum group metal supply and demand are likely to be greatly affected.
Silver also has a strong industrial demand factor in its own supply and demand, and if the global economy goes into recession, as many predict, demand for silver could also fall sharply. although the growing development and sale of solar panels could save silver. However, silver is more likely to follow the rise in the price of gold, and when the price rises, the percentage of increase in silver will be higher than that of gold. However, we do see a different relationship between the two than in the past few years, so we think the average forecast for LBMA/LPPM delegates may be too optimistic. The ratio of gold to silver is currently above 85, which is an all-time high, and although we have seen a decline in this ratio, the decline may not be as large as the delegates predicted (according to their forecasts, they want the ratio to be around 72). But we still see silver prices rise with gold prices.
All this has prompted us to make our own forecasts on the trend of precious metals prices in a year's time. The price of gold is around $1650, which is somewhat similar to the average expectation of the delegation; but the price of silver is around $21, which indicates a gold-silver ratio of 78; platinum is around $1000; and palladium has reached $1750 today. In fact, we would not be surprised that palladium prices fell a year later. I know, but readers may forget my predictions in a year's time, and if my numbers are close to correct, I will certainly requote them to remind you of all the facts!
Grand meeting of thousands of people in China's colored metal industry
Shanghai Colored net (SMM) Annual meeting is an annual event of the metal industry, which is attended by thousands of people every year. People from the metal industry at home and abroad gather to review and sum up the experience and harvest of the year, and lay the groundwork for the production, operation and operation of the coming year.
This year's "2019 China Nonferrous Metals Industry Annual meeting and 2020 (SMM) Metal Price Forecast Conference" was jointly created by SMM and China Renewable Resources Industry technological Innovation Strategic Alliance and Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. At the same time, the first "China recycled Metal Industry chain Development Summit Forum" was held at the same time. At the same time, you will enjoy the establishment of the SMM Metal Price forecasting Conference and the waste Battery Recycling Exchange. From the development of the non-ferrous metal market to the recovery and utilization of renewable resources, from the detailed explanation of the policy system to the technical research and development of the industrial chain.
This is not only a meeting, but also a brainstorm for the industry to exchange information and collide with the spark of thinking!
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