Silver Continues to Look for Momentum as Rallies Fade
NEW YORK (February 19) The silver market rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise, but ultimately, I think you have a situation where there are a lot of questions when it comes to whether or not we can just break to the upside or are we going to continue to see successive lower highs.
The $70 level at the moment is a major floor in the market and as long as we can hang out above there, we’re probably okay. If we can’t, then it’s very possible we go to the 200-day EMA, maybe even $50.
Locating the Market Floor
I think the question now isn’t so much whether or not silver can turn things around and rally, I think it’s more or less, where is the floor. The last time we saw a massive spike in silver, the floor was at $12 an ounce. I’m pretty sure it’s not there this time.
So, there are a lot of questions to be asked about this, but at this juncture, I believe that we are still in a somewhat buy-on-the-dip situation, but we also need to recognize that these are short-term trades.
The longer we go sideways, the better off silver’s going to do and I do expect the range to compress. Maybe $90 won’t be the high, maybe $80 will be the high and 70 will be the floor, we just don’t know yet.
Either way, the last thing you want to see is a massive impulsive move, especially to the upside, because it would just signify that the market is still out of control and that we would get another nasty candlestick as we got a couple of weeks ago.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates within narrowing Bollinger Bands
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows price holding above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which also forms the middle Bollinger Band near $4,954, keeping the near-term bias mildly supportive.
Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signaling reduced volatility, while spot prices trade in the upper half of the envelope, bringing the upper band near $5,047 into focus.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53 on the same chart, suggesting neutral-to-bullish momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 19.51 points to a relatively weak trend environment.
As long as the price remains above the 20-SMA, dips may find support near the $4,955-$4,900 region. A sustained break above $5,047 would strengthen short-term bullish momentum, while a move below the mid-band may shift momentum back toward the lower Bollinger Band near $4,862.
FXStreet
