Silver Squeeze 2.0: Will silver price see the biggest technical breakout in modern market history?
NEW YORK (March 27) Silver is back in the spotlight. After gaining more than 40% over the past 12 months and trading above $34 an ounce, silver is again the focus of a coordinated grassroots movement – this time dubbed “Silver Squeeze 2.0.”
The online campaign, which is gaining traction across social platforms like X, is calling for a collective buy of physical silver on March 31 to challenge what supporters say is a “manipulated” paper market. The strategy recalls the 2021 Reddit-driven silver squeeze, though this time, investors are citing tighter supply, elevated lease rates, and an overheated paper-to-physical silver ratio as reasons to believe the setup is different.
"There’s about 223 million silver ounces that are net short right now. That’s about 25% of the annual mine supply," said Peter Krauth, author of The Great Silver Bull and editor of Silver Stock Investor, in an interview with Kitco News. "If you look at the ratio of paper silver to physical silver, we're seeing something like 378 to 1– well beyond any other futures market for metals."
Retail uprising or temporary hype?
In 2021, retail investors attempted a similar move through Reddit’s WallStreetBets community. SLV ETF volumes surged ninefold, and silver briefly jumped from $25 to $29.50. “The average silver stock was up about 30 to 40% in just three days,” Krauth recalled. “But gold was flat, so it really was very much silver-specific.”
The momentum fizzled due to a lack of sustained buying and fundamental demand. Krauth said this time could play out similarly, unless there’s a larger shift: “Unless you see a fundamental bump in demand, especially from industrial buyers, I think the rally might not last. But there’s less silver available for investment now than there was 10 years ago, and that could really help drive a bigger and more sustained squeeze.”
Silver’s industrial demand now represents around 60% of annual usage, up from 50% a decade ago. According to the Silver Institute, solar, electronics, and electric vehicles have driven the increase.
Supply pressures mounting
Silver has posted four consecutive years of global supply deficits, averaging 200 million ounces annually, according to Metals Focus. Krauth noted that this shortfall has been met not by new mine supply, but by drawing down inventories from exchanges like the LBMA and COMEX.
“LBMA inventories have been drawn down by 40 to 50% over the last few years. A lot of that metal is moving into private vaults in New York,” Krauth said. He pointed to the recent rush ahead of possible U.S. tariffs on imported metals, with large quantities of silver shifting from London to the U.S. before the April 2 announcement date.
This movement has been fueled by fears that gold, silver, and copper could be included in new trade measures. “Layer on top of all of this what's been going on with Trump tariffs,” Krauth said. “If you're importing silver into the U.S., you could have to pay a 25% tariff. That’s a real concern.”
Could $50 silver finally break?
Silver remains the only major metal still trading below its 1980 all-time high. But Krauth believes that may soon change.
“I think we could probably see $40 in the second half of this year, and $50 next year,” he said. “Some experts are calling this the biggest technical breakout setup in modern history. If silver breaks $50 decisively, it could go to $70, $80, or even $100 in short order.”
He also echoed bold forecasts from other industry voices. “I said in my book I think we’ll see $300 silver eventually. Eric Sprott talks about $250 to $500. I’m happy to be in the same camp.”
Retail premiums remain elevated, and while demand at bullion dealers has moderated, institutional interest is rising. “Some dealers are actually going to Costco to get their silver,” Krauth noted. “There's a movement happening, even if the distribution has shifted.”
For new investors, Krauth offered this advice: “If someone doesn’t own silver, at least buy a little now. If you want a larger allocation, do it in tranches. Maybe buy some now, and if there’s a dip, add more.”
What’s next? March 31 and beyond
March 31 may or may not prove to be a catalyst. But it’s clear that silver is once again part of the broader conversation around inflation, de-dollarization, and market manipulation. Krauth said even if this online movement fizzles, the underlying supply-demand picture points to higher prices ahead.
“This isn’t just about retail investors anymore. It’s about real tightness in the market,” Krauth said.
KitcoNews
