Silver (XAG/USD) intraday rally is fast approaching key resistance

LONDON (January 9) The earlier 10.7% drop in Silver (XAG/USD) from its 7 January 2026 high of US$82.77 to yesterday, Thursday, 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84 has started to evolve to see an intraday rally of 6% (low to high) to trade higher at US$78.05 at the time of writing ahead of today’s key risk event; the release of US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2025.

However, technical analysis suggests that the short-term corrective decline structure of Silver (XAG/USD) may not have ended, with more potential weakness ahead to shape a mean reversion decline towards its 50-day moving average (around US$62.75/61.91 zone) before the start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence within its long-term secular uptrend phase that remains intact since the 18 March 2020 low.

Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Reaching the inflection point for another potential down leg

Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 9 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the US$79.86 key short-term pivotal resistance on Silver (XAG/USD). A break below US$74.07 increases the odds of another corrective down leg towards the next intermediate support at US$70.52 (also the 20-day moving average) in the first step.

Key elements to support the bearish bias

• Today’s rally from Thursday, 8 January 2026, low of US$73.84 has taken the form of a minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration, which suggests a potential “dead cat bounce”.
• The hourly Stochastic oscillator has flashed out an impending bearish divergence condition at its overbought region, which implies that the upside momentum of the rebound may be fading.
• The US$79.86 key short-term resistance (potential inflection level to end the rebound) is defined by the pull-back resistance of the former ascending support from 1 January 2026 low and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from 7 January 2026 high to 8 January 2026 low.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A clearance with an hourly close above US$79.86 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the US$84.03 key medium-term pivotal resistance (current all-time high of 29 December 2025).

MarketPulse