Uncertainty about ECB meeting steadies gold price but stronger dollar applies pressure

March 8, 2018

London (Mar 8)  Gold steadied on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting and further news on US trade tariffs kept the metal in a narrow range, though a stronger dollar pressured prices. The dollar firmed after the White House indicated that key trading partners could be exempt from the steel and aluminium import tariffs it proposed last week.

Spot gold was at $1,325.69 an ounce by 10.25am GMT, little changed from late on Wednesday, when it rose to a one-week high of $1,340.42 before closing 0.6% lower.

US gold futures were down 0.1% at $1,326.40.

ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele said the dollar would remain the key driver of gold prices in the near term. "The only reason we were up near $1,340 was because the dollar fell towards the end of last week," she said.

"We have the ECB meeting today, which is more of a euro story. If speculators finally start taking profit on the euro long position, that could reflect in a higher dollar." The ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged on Thursday but could tweak its accompanying statement to offer some clues about plans to end its unprecedented bond purchases this year.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for February, a key barometer of the US economy, is also being awaited for further clues on the pace of Federal Reserve rate increases. Gold is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

In the medium-term gold will come under temporary pressure from interest-rate hikes, said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong. Gold traders are also awaiting further news on plans for US tariffs on some imported goods. The White House said late on Wednesday that Canada, Mexico and possibly other countries may be granted exemptions, at least for a while. Trump will sign a proclamation establishing the tariffs during a ceremony scheduled for 2030 GMT, a source familiar with the situation said.

Silver was down 0.2% at $16.47/oz, while platinum fell 0.4% to $948.70/oz after touching its lowest since January 4 at $943.

Palladium was down 0.1% at $968.50/oz after dropping to its lowest since February 9 at $961.55 on Wednesday.


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