US Dollar closes a third consecutive losing week, focus shifts to employment data

December 1, 2023

NEW YORK (December 1) The US Dollar (USD) Index has shown a modest decline, trading at 103.15, despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish stance. The November ISM Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected but didn’t trigger any significant downward movements in the Greenback. What seems to weaken the currency is that markets aren’t buying Powell’s hawkishness.

In line with that, despite cooling inflation and a mixed trend in the United States labour market, the Fed turned surprisingly less dovish, maintaining an open stance toward further policy tightening. While important gauges of inflation like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) have trended lower, the bank has declared that it needs to see more evidence of inflation cooling down, leaving the door open for further tightening if needed.

Daily Market Movers: US Dollar with mild losses despite Powell warning markets

  •  Chair Powell noted that in a speech at Spelman College on Friday that it is “premature” to say monetary policy is restrictive enough and that the bank will raise rates again if needed to lower inflation.
  • On the data front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI reported by the Institute for Supply Management marked 46.7 for November, on par with the previous figure while falling short of the anticipated 47.6.
  • Looking ahead, the US will release November's Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. Overal, job creation is expected to have picked up while wages are seen decelerating.
  • US bond yields are experiencing a downward trend, with the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year yields standing at 4.57%, 4.16%, and 4.25%, respectively, and seem to limit the upside for the USD.
  • According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for the December meeting indicate investors do not expect a rate hike. Additionally, swap markets are pricing in rate cuts midway through 2024.

Technical Analysis: US Dollar selling momentum persists, DXY capped by the 200-day SMA

The indicators on the daily chart paint a bearish picture of the US dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) position underscores strong selling momentum, while the negative skew in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram further validates this downward pressure. 

Bolstering the bearish case, the DXY position in relation to the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) reinforces the downward trajectory. With the DXY remaining below the 20, 100 and 200-day SMAs, it's apparent that buyers are facing an uphill battle against a prevailing bearish trend. 


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