US Dollar Drops to Fresh Lows Versus Euro, Pound and Gold Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

July 1, 2014

Washinton (July 1)  The US non-farm payrolls data, one of the most watched releases by global financial markets for its strong dollar liquidity signals, will be published this Thursday instead of the usual Friday, as US markets will be closed on 4 July on account of Independence Day celebrations.

The 3 July release may show a 213,000 increase in non-farm jobs in June, down from the 217,000 addition registered in May, according to the market consensus.

The unemployment rate is seen to be steady at 6.3%.

Forex markets have already got a lot of indications in the last few weeks that the Federal Reserve is not in hurry to hike the Fed funds rate, but negative surprises in the jobs data prints will deepen the recent slide in the dollar.

Dovish comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen on 18 June and a slew of data releases in the recent weeks have together pushed the dollar index to a 45-day low of 79.76 on 1 July.

The June Chicago purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 62.6 from 65.5 in May, data showed on Monday. Analysts were expecting a fall to 63.0.

Comments by a Fed official late on Monday also helped the dollar sell-off.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams in a speech to the members of the Utah and Montana Bankers Association predicted full employment and normal inflation by the "early part" of 2016, according to a Reuters report.

As for rate rises, he said, "I still see that as some time off in the future," telling reporters that he still believes a rate rise will not be appropriate until the second half of 2015.

The greenback has fallen to a new five-year low of 1.7148 against the British pound on Tuesday, also driven by the positive data turnout in the UK.

EUR/USD rallied to a new one-month high of 1.3698 and even the negative data surprises from the single currency region on Tuesday have failed to reverse any gains in the pair.

Gold jumped to a new three-month high of $1333.22 on 1 July as uncertain growth outlook for the US weakened the dollar, increasing the investment appeal for the assets denominated in the greenback.

Source: ibTimes

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