US Dollar edges lower as rate cuts expectations weighs

NEW YORK (December 19) The US Dollar (USD) Index, trading at 102.00, and is currently in the grips of a downward trend, heavily influenced by falling yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve's (Fed) Thomas Barkin, which fueled further easing bets on the next decisions from the bank. 

The Fed's dovish outlook, coupled with cooling inflation figures, recently weighted to the US dollar's strength, as the bank pointed out that its officials are seeing more rate cuts than expected in 2024. In line with that, November’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures, due on Friday, may affect the Greenback price dynamics as they could give more strength to the case of earlier rate cuts next year.

Daily Market Movers: US Dollar down on lower yields, dovish Barkin comments 

• The US Dollar is experiencing losses, resuming its downward path influenced by falling yields and dovish comments from Thomas Barkin. Housing data failed to trigger a reaction on the Greenback.
• Housing Starts statistics for the November report by the U.S. Census Bureau came in at 1.56M, against the consensus of 1.36M and the previous figure of 1.359M, indicating an increase in construction activity.
• Building Permits data for November surprisingly fell to 1.46M, below the expected consensus of 1.47M and the previous figure of 1.498M.
• Market attention is pivoting towards the upcoming report of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which will provide insights into spending trends and inflationary pressures.
• US bond rates for 2, 5, and 10-year bonds, currently trading at 4.43%, 3.90%, and 3.91%, respectively, are experiencing a downtrend, which lowers the demand for USD.
• Thomas Barking was seen as optimistic about the inflation outlook, commenting that demand and inflation are normalizing and that good progress is being made. He then pointed out that the bank will respond if inflation continues this path.
• According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets anticipate potential rate cuts by March 2024.

Technical Analysis: Bearish dominance continues, bulls fail to maintain momentum

The negative slope and territory of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest continued bearish momentum aligning with the rising red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). This comes after bulls gained some ground in the last session but failed to maintain it to continue edging higher.

Meanwhile, on a more macro level, the index persistently stationed below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) speaks for the pervasive selling domination. This ongoing bearish stance mirrors a firm control by the bears.

FXStreet