U.S. Dollar Indecisive After ADP, Trade Balance and ISM

December 5, 2013

Chicago (Dec 5)  The greenback was mixed trading after a slew of U.S. economic data including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, U.S. Trade Balance and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

ADP reported that U.S. private-sector employment increased by 215,000 in November, rising from an upwardly revised gain of 184,000 in October. The figure beat analyst expectations of 173,000 by a wide margin.

The Labor Department is due to release the U.S. November employment report on Friday. Analysts are expecting Non-Farm Payrolls to come in at 180K and the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.2 percent from last months reading of 7.3 percent.

U.S. Trade Balance

The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $40.6 billion in October, from a deficit of $43.0 billion in September. Analysts had forecast the U.S. trade deficit to narrow to $40 billion in October.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Institute of Supply Management reported on Wednesday that its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index fell to 53.9 in November from 55.4 in October. The figure missed analyst expectations of 55.0. A number above 50 indicates that the non-manufacturing sector economy is expanding.

December Federal Reserve Meeting

The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is to pursue maximum employment and stable prices, making Friday's employment report a focal point for upcoming policy decisions. The next Fed policy meeting is on December 17-18.

ICE U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart

Looking at the daily U.S. Dollar Index chart we can see that an inside day has formed. Inside bars occur where the high point of the bar is lower than the previous bar's high, and the low point is higher than the previous bar's low. Traders often look for breakout opportunities following an inside bar or a series of inside bars. The 50 period simple moving average is forming potential support to the downside in the area of 80.42.

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