US Dollar Index faces pressure towards weekend of trade talks

NEW YORK (May 9) The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is quickly reversing course this Friday ahead of the United States (US) trade talks with China in Switzerland over the weekend. The DXY index trades near 100.45 at the time of writing after hitting a near-a-month high of 100.86 earlier in the day. The euphoria over the United Kingdom (UK) trade deal with the US is being written off as not a trade deal at all. The US gets to keep its 10% tariffs on UK goods while getting better and easier access to the UK consumer markets. 

It was not at all a comprehensive and all-around trade deal that US President Donald Trump promised in the run-up to the announcement. Such a poor deal is being brokered with one of the smaller countries in terms of exposure to the US, and it sets the scene for trade talks this weekend with China not to go that smoothly. Although President Trump, according to sources, said tariffs could drop as low as 50% if China cooperates this weekend, it rather looks as if the US is not the strongest party sitting at the negotiating table, Bloomberg reports. 

Daily digest market movers: Again on tariffs

• As already mentioned, China and the US will meet in Switzerland for trade talks over the weekend. However, no trade deal would be discussed, but only defusing the situation. Besides that, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has reiterated several times this week that trade talks can only take place if the US unilaterally drops its tariffs. 
• Just ahead of the US trading session, Trump commented on Truth Social Network that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods 'seems right' while urging China to open its markets to the US, ahead of this weekend's trade talks.
• A slew of Fed speakers are lined up to speak this Friday:
• • At 12:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler and New York Fed President John Williams deliver a speech about employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 in Iceland.
  • At 14:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee shares opening remarks at the Fed Listens event, Perspectives from the Midwest, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • At 15:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller participates in a panel discussion about monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference in Stanford.
  • At 22:45 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participate in a panel discussion about productivity dynamics at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference in Stanford.
• Equities are in the green on Friday, though not massively. European indices are up 0.5% on average. US Futures are flat to marginally higher, less than 0.5%.
• The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June’s meeting at 17.1%. Further ahead, the July 30 decision sees odds for rates being lower than current levels at 63.2%.
• The US 10-year yields trade around 4.38%, edging higher again after the mid-week dip. 

FXStreet