Is The Energy Rally Running Out Of Gas And Crude Oil?

June 1, 2017

I would like to update some charts for Natural Gas and oil which appear to be building out a topping formation. If these patterns play out there is a lot of room to the downside we can take advantage of. There has been a lot of backing and filling, but it looks like this may be coming to an end and we may finally get the impulse move down.

$NATGAS has been building out a 1 year H&S topping pattern and just recently completed the high for the right shoulder. This daily chart shows a blue 5 point bearish rising flag that broke below the bottom rail today. A backtest to the underside of the 5 point bearish rising flag would come in around the 3.18 area which would represent a low risk entry point to go short natural gas. The possible neckline is still quite a bit lower which would be another low risk entry point if the neckline gives way.

This next chart is a weekly look which shows a classic H&S top forming with the left shoulder and head building out inside the rising wedge, and the right shoulder forming on the backtest to the bottom rail of the rising wedge. Note how long the backtesting process took before it was finally completed. Most folks would have given up and moved on to something else, but sometimes having some patience can be rewarding. Patience would also have been required when the very symmetrical 2 year triple H&S top broke down and began consolidating the first leg down, building out the blue diamond. Each reversal $NATGAS has had since 2012 was accompanied by a H&S reversal pattern. As you can see, if our current H&S top plays out this move down is just getting started.

This longer-term daily chart picks up the price action once the 8 point diamond consolidation pattern broke down. The smaller red consolidation patterns are what you want to see in a strong impulse move down, one forming just below the previous one. The move was so strong you can see a parabolic decline out of the blue diamond.

This weekly chart puts the big picture in perspective which shows the end of a very big rising channel with a H&S top that finally finished off the reversal pattern. The blue diamond is basically a halfway pattern that formed in the middle of that massive decline. At the top of the chart I listed 2 short efts, DGAZ which is a 3 X short etf and KOLD is a 2 X short ETF for natural gas.

Now let’s turn our attention to the $WTIC, oil index, which had a massive decline into the early 2016 low. Initially it looked like oil was going to build out an inverse H&S bottom, but as time went on the price action failed to move much higher than the neckline and began trading sideways. After nearly a year of sideways chopping action it looks like oil has built out a bearish rising wedge. There are several ways we can draw in the rising wedge, with the first one starting at the 2016 low. It’s not the prettiest rising wedge I’ve ever seen, but it does fit the bill as the backtest found resistance right where one would be looking, the underside of the bottom rail. There was a smaller bearish rising wedge which formed in 2015 which had a breakout followed by a backtest.

The 2nd way we can draw in a rising wedge is by starting the first reversal point, not at the bottom, but at the first reaction high. This rising wedge gives us 5 reversal points which we would need as the rising wedge is forming above the previous low. Note how the price action has interacted with the bottom rail of the one year black rising wedge. The initial backtest I was looking for was a little strong at 49.50. After petering out just above the bottom rail oil declined once again and broke below the bottom rail with another bactest to 50.26 which so far is holding.

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Rambus Chartology is Primarily a Goldbug TA Site following the precious metals markets. Chartology is the Unique Blend of Technical Chart Pattern Identification and Market Psychology,  Developed by Rambus During the Tech Mania of the late 1990s.  His Early Training came the old fashioned way...Reading Edwards and McGee's Bible of Technical Analysis and spending years with a sharp pencil graph paper and ruler refining his skills and accuracy. Visit the Rambus Chartology website at http://rambus1.com/.

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